[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090953
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell: A 975 mb low pressure centered near
38N54W continues to move northeast away from our waters. A cold
front enters the area near 31N48W and extends southwest to the
Anegada Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of
25N east of the front to 42W. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail
west of the front. Large N swell with seas of 12-14 ft and a
period of 10-13 seconds is forecast to persist north of 25N
between 49W and 70W. Seas are 8 ft or greater across the Atlantic
west of 65W, including near Atlantic exposures of the Bahamas and
the east coast of Florida. This area of significant swell will
gradually shift northeastward through the weekend. Mariners are
urged exercise caution over the next few days across the western
and central atlantic, as this swell event will maintain hazardous
marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between lower
pressure over South America and higher pressure building over
the Atlantic will support pulsing near-gale to gale force winds
and rough seas off Colombia on tonight and Sat night. Conditions
will begin to improve Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N11W to
06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 02N45W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate SE return flow prevails over the Gulf of
Mexico with E fresh winds just north of Yucatan. Seas are 5-7 ft
in the waters west of 90W, and 3-5 ft in the waters east of 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected across
the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along the eastern
seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is possible over the
far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of a cold
front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the
front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W of 95W on
Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and reach the SE Gulf
Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean.

A cold front enters the Caribbean through the Anegada Passage and
continues southwestward to 16N69W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
prevail through the Mona and Windward Passages with seas of 6-8
ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move SE and dissipate
through this evening. Large northerly swell will impact Atlantic
passages of the NE Caribbean today then gradually become NE over
the weekend before subsiding Mon. High pressure will prevail
across the western Atlantic and move slowly E-SE through Mon.
This will produce fresh to strong trade winds and building seas
over the south-central Caribbean by tonight, reaching gale-force
off Colombia tonight and then pulse to gale-force again Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
ongoing Significant Swell event in the W Atlantic.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1019 mb high is centered near
25N31W with ridging extending across the eastern Atlantic.
Between the high/ridge and the ITCZ, the trades are gentle to
moderate with seas 5-7 ft. North of the high/ridge to 31N W winds
are fresh to strong with seas 8-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds will
prevail tonight across the west Atlantic behind a frontal boundary
currently E of 60W, extending SW into the NE Caribbean. Rough to
very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will continue N of 27N and E of
65W today. Winds will diminish from west to east through Sun as
the front moves SE and weaken and high pressure slides E-SE along
27N-28N and into the area waters. Strong S to SW will develop
across offshore N FL waters ahead of the next cold front on Mon.

$$
ERA
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