[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC FRI FEB 9 2024

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A 988 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 37N56W CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM TAFB
WATERS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N55W AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST TO HISPANIOLA. STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF 27N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 53W. THE GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH TO NEAR-GALE WINDS BEGINNING AT 0000
UTC THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE
COLD FRONT. LARGE N SWELL WITH SEAS OF 12-16 FT AND A PERIOD OF
10-12 SECONDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 52W
AND 72W TODAY. BUOY 41047 HAD BEEN REPORTING N SEAS OF 15 FT
THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE DROPPED TO 11 FT AS OF 2220 UTC. SEAS ARE
8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 65W, INCLUDING NEAR
ATLANTIC EXPOSURES OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
THIS AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE URGED EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, AS THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT PULSING NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OFF COLOMBIA ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUN MORNING.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO
05N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO 00N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

GULF OF MEXICO...

GENTLE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH E FRESH WINDS JUST NORTH OF YUCATAN. SEAS
ARE 4-6 FT IN THE WATERS WEST OF 90W, AND 2-4 FT IN THE WATERS
EAST OF 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected
across the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along
the eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is
possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late
Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast
late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to
gale-force W of 95W on Mon. The front is expected to reach from
the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning
and reach the SE Gulf Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
16N60W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N65W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE N
FRESH WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND CONTINUES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N71W. N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE MONA AND
WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE FRESH TO STRONG WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front extends from the
Central Atlantic across the central Lesser Antilles to coastal
Venezuela near 11.5N66W. Scattered thunderstorms continue within
180 nm E of the front. A secondary front extends through the
Mona Passage to just S of Hispaniola. The fronts will move SE
and dissipate through Fri evening. Moderate WNW swell has moved
through the central Caribbean today and will reach the eastern
Caribbean this evening and tonight. Large northerly swell will
impact Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean through Fri then
gradually become NE over the weekend before subsiding Mon. High
pressure will enter the western Atlantic tonight and move slowly
E-SE through Mon.  This will produce fresh to strong trade winds
and building seas over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri,
reaching gale- force off Colombia by Fri night and then pulse to
gale-force again Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR AN ONGOING GALE AND
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE W ATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N31W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 25N43W AND EASTWARD TO
26N18W. BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE AND THE ITCZ, THE TRADES ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. NORTH OF THE HIGH/RIDGE TO
31N W WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG WITH SEAS 8-10 FT.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong NW winds will prevail
tonight across the west Atlantic behind a pair of frontal
boundaries currently E of 60W, extending SW into the NE and E
Caribbean. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will
continue N of 24N and E of 72W tonight then gradually lift N of
27N and E of 65W Fri. Winds will diminish from west to east
through Sun as the fronts move SE and weaken and high pressure
slides E-SE along 27N-28N and into the area waters. Strong S to
SW will develop across offshore N FL waters ahead of the next
cold front on Mon.

$$
Landsea/Stripling
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