[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell: 995 mb low pressure centered near
36N57W continues to move northeast away from TAFB waters. A cold
front enters the area near 31N56W and extends southwest to
Hispaniola. Strong to near gale force S winds were detected by
satellite scatterometer this morning within 120 nm east of the
cold front. Fresh to strong NW winds prevail west of the cold
front. Large northerly swell with seas of 12-16 ft and a period of
10-12 seconds is forecast to persist north of 23N between 52W and
72W today. Seas are 8 ft or greater across the Atlantic west of
65W, including near Atlantic Exposures of the Bahamas and the
east coast of Florida. This area of significant swell will
gradually shift northeastward through the weekend. Mariners are
urged exercise caution over the next few days across the western
and central Atlantic, as this swell event will maintain hazardous
marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between lower
pressure over South America and higher pressure building over the
Atlantic will support pulsing near gale to gale force winds and
rough seas off Colombia on Fri night and Sat night. Conditions
will begin to improve Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N11W to
05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 01N50W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh SE return flow prevails over the Gulf of
Mexico. Seas are 5-7 ft in the waters west of 90W, and 3-5 ft in
the waters east of 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected to
continue across the Gulf basin this afternoon through tonight as
high pressure shift eastward to the eastern seaboard. Patchy fog
is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late
Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast
late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds may increase to near gale-
force on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and reach the SE
Gulf Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean.

Westerly swell generated in the western Caribbean is reaching the
coasts of Colombia and the ABC Islands this morning, with seas to
7 ft impacting western facing coasts and ports.

A dissipating cold front extends from 16N61W to 11N65W, or from
near Guadeloupe to the coast of Venezuela. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N to 15N between 62W and 65W. Satellite
scatterometer this morning depicted light to gentle N winds across most
of the basin. However, fresh to strong N winds continue to be
observed by scatterometer, buoys, and ships within the Windward
Passage, Mona Passage, and Cayman Basin. Similar conditions are
likely within other passages and Atlantic Exposures. Seas are 5-7
ft across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, a secondary cold front is across Hispaniola.
Both the dissipating front and the secondary cold front will move
SE and dissipate through Fri evening. Moderate WNW swell is
moving through the central Caribbean this morning and will reach
the eastern Caribbean this afternoon and tonight. Large northerly
swell will impact Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean through
Fri. High pressure will enter the western Atlantic tonight and
move slowly eastward through the weekend. This will produce fresh
to strong trade winds and building seas over the south- central
Caribbean by late Fri, reaching near gale- force off Colombia by
Fri night. Gale force winds will pulse again across the waters
offshore of Colombia on Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic west of 65W is described in SPECIAL FEATURES,
where conditions are dominated by an ongoing SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A weakening cold front extends southwestward from 30N50W to
Guadeloupe. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the dissipating
boundary. 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26N30W. Satellite
scatterometer shows gentle to moderate trades across the basin.
Seas 8 ft or greater are north of 28N east of 44W, and northwest
of a line from 28N44W to 18N60W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong NW winds will prevail today
across the west Atlantic behind a pair of frontal boundaries
currently located between 50W and 70W, extending SW into the NE
and E Caribbean. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will
continue N of 22N and E of 75W today then gradually shift N of 27N
and E of 65W Fri. Winds will diminish from west to east through
Fri as the fronts move SE and weaken and high pressure slides
eastward along 28N and into the area waters. Strong S to SW will
develop across offshore N FL waters ahead of the next cold front
on Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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