[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Northerly Swell:
A 995 mb frontal low centered near 34N59W continues to track
northeastward into the north Atlantic. Strong to near-gale NW
winds prevail across the area N of 24N between 48W and 72W. Large
northerly swell with seas of 12 to 17 ft are expected to persist
north of 22N between 53W and 78W through today. This area of winds
and seas will gradually shift northeastward through the weekend.
Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days across
the western and central Atlantic, as these seas will maintain
hazardous marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Pressure gradient between the lower pressures over South America
and a high pressure that will build over the Atlantic will support
pulsing near gale-force to gale force winds and build seas off
Colombia on Fri night and Sat night. Rough seas will be expected
with these winds. Conditions will begin to improve Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N11W to
05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 00N43W. Scattered
showers are noted along the ITCZ between 25W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1026 mb high over South
Carolina to the southwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong SE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the northwestern and west-central
Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, southerly flow will increase over the western
Gulf today as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward toward the
Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest Mexico. Patchy
fog is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by
late Sat, ahead of cold front expected to move off the Texas coast
late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds may increase to near gale to
gale-force on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean.

A dissipating cold front extends southwestward from the Anegada
Passage to the coast of NE Colombia. A squall line is analyzed
from 17N62W to 13N65W. Recent scatterometer data revealed that
winds are near-gale force in the area of strongest convention.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present behind the front across the west-central and southwestern
portions of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to
6 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan
Channel. Gentle to moderate S to SW to NW winds and seas at 6 to 8
ft in mixed moderate to large swell prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the strong convection occurring across the
eastern Caribbean E of 65W will gradually shift northeastward into
the Atlantic by Fri. Moderate seas in NW to N swell will continue
across the SW Caribbean through today. Large northerly swell will
impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean through Fri.
Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over
the south-central Caribbean by late Fri, reaching near gale-force
off Colombia by Fri night. Gale force winds will pulse again
across the waters N of Colombia on Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
Significant Northerly Swell event.

A weakening cold front extends southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N54W to 19N63W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted up near and up to 250 nm east of this
boundary. The strongest convection is depicted northeast of the
Lesser Antilles, where a squall line is analyzed from 19N60W to
17N62W. Recent scatterometer data revealed that winds are near-
gale force winds near the strongest convection. Farther west,
another cold front reaches southwestward from the aforementioned
996 mb low mentioned in the Special Features section to near
22N67W. Scattered showers are noted near and up to 130 nm east of
this front. A broad surface ridging prevails over the eastern
Atlantic, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 26N29W.

Outside the significant swell area, moderate to fresh SW to W
winds and seas at 8 to 14 ft dominate north of 18N between 26W and
80W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds
and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail from 07N to 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near gale NW winds will
prevail through today across the west Atlantic behind a pair of
frontal boundaries currently located between 55W and 67W. Rough to
very rough seas will continue within the area of strongest winds
into Fri. Winds will diminish from west to east through Fri as
high pressure builds along 28N off the northern Bahamas. Strong S
to SW will develop across offshore N FL ahead of the next cold
front on Mon.

$$
ERA
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