[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080501
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 08 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Northerly Swell:
A 996 mb frontal low south of Bermuda near 34N60W continues to
track northeastward into the north Atlantic. Recent
scatterometer data reveals that winds have decreased to fresh to
near-gale W to NW winds north of 24N. Large northerly swell with
seas of 12 to 18 ft are expected to persist north of 25N between
50W and 75W through Thu. This area of winds and seas will
gradually shift northeastward through the weekend. Mariners are
urged exercise caution over the next few days north of 24N
across the western and central Atlantic, as these seas will
maintain hazardous marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Pressure gradient between the low pressures over South America
and a high pressure that will build over the Atlantic will
support near gale-force to gale winds and build seas off
Colombia by Fri night. Seas will build to 13 ft late Sun
night. Conditions will begin to improve Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of west Africa near 07N11W and
extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 0617W to 03.5N31W to
0N46W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted 75 nm south of
the ITCZ between 22W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1027 mb high over
South Carolina to the southwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong SE
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the northwestern and
west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5
ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, southerly flow will increase over the western
Gulf tonight and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward
toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest
Mexico. Patchy fog is possible over the far northwest and west-
central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of cold front expected to move
off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds may
increase to near gale to gale-force on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
Gale event.

A dissipating cold front extends southwestward from western
Puerto Rico to the coast of Colombia. A line of strong
convection is occurring 150 nm east of the front. Recent
scatterometer data revealed that winds are near-gale force in
the area of strongest convention. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present behind the front across
the west-central and southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE
to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin,
including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate S to SW to NW
winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate to large swell
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front extends from the
eastern Puerto Rico to offshore NW Colombia. Strong convection
occurring across the eastern Caribbean E of 65W will gradually
shift northeastward into the Atlantic by Fri. Rough seas in NW
to N swell will continue across the SW Caribbean through Thu.
Large northerly swell will impact Atlantic passages in the
northeast Caribbean Thu and Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and
building seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by
late Fri, reaching near gale- force off Colombia by Fri night.
Gale force winds will pulse again across the waters N of
Colombia on Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
Significant Northerly Swell event.

A weakening cold front extends southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N56W to beyond western Puerto Rico.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted up
near and up to 250 nm east of this boundary. The strongest
convection is depicted northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
Furthermore, recent scatterometer data revealed that winds are
near-gale fore winds near the strongest convection. Farther
west, another cold front reaches southwestward from the
aforementioned 996 mb low mentioned in the Special Features
section to near 23N68W. Patchy showers are found near and up to
130 nm east of this front. A broad surface ridging prevails over
the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near
25N55W.

Outside the significant swell area, fresh to strong SW to W
winds and seas at 10 to 16 ft dominate north of 20N between 52W
and 65W. Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to
12 ft seas are evident north of 20N between 35W and 52W. Light to
gentle southerly winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft in moderate NW
swell prevail east of 35W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate
to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail from 07N to
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near gale NW winds will
prevail through the night across the west Atlantic behind a pair
of frontal boundaries currently located between 56W and 63W.
Rough to very rough seas will continue within the area of
strongest winds into Fri. Winds will diminish from west to east
Thu and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern
Bahamas. Strong S to SW will develop across offshore N FL ahead
of the next cold front on Mon.

$$
KRV
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