[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 996 mb occluded low near Bermuda
connects with another 997 mb low pressure center to the SW near
30N61W. A cold front extends SW from this low to the central
Bahamas. Widespread near- gale to gale force winds, along with
rough to very rough seas peaking at 23 ft are west of the cold
front. Winds west of 76W to Florida are diminishing, however,
large seas prevail. As the low tracks east- northeastward through
this morning, these winds and seas are going to spread eastward
north of 25N to 60W. Another area of gale force winds and rough
seas developed this morning N of 29N between 49W-52W ahead of the
complex low. By this afternoon, the low is expected to slowly
weaken, which should allow marine conditions to gradually improve
through Thu.

Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next couple of days
across the above basin, even outside of the gale warning areas due
to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and
treacherous seas associated with this weather scenario.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near
06N10W and extends to 04N30W and to 02N50W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Fresh to strong winds
and large NW to N swell continue in the far SE Gulf including the
Florida Straits, however conditions will improve today. Marine
conditions are improving in the remainder of the eastern Gulf.
Moderate NE to N winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. Light to
gentle flow and seas of 3 ft and below are elsewhere.

For the forecast,southerly flow will increase over the western
Gulf tonight and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward
toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest
Mexico. Looking ahead, patchy fog is possible over the far
northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of cold front
expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from the Mona Passage to the coast
of Colombia near 11N75W. Converging southerly winds east of the
cold front is producing strong convection over the NE Caribbean.
Fresh to strong winds are west of the front in the SW Caribbean
and in the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola. Seas are 8 to 11 ft.
Winds and seas are diminishing in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, strong convection will gradually shift
northeastward into the Atlantic by Fri. Rough seas will gradually
diminish today. Large northerly swell will impact Atlantic
passages in the northeast Caribbean Thu and Fri. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over
the south-central Caribbean by late Fri, possibly reaching near
gale-force off Colombia by Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
Gale Warning currently in effect.

A complex low pressure system prevails W of 60W, related to the
Gale Warning described above. To the E, surface ridging prevails,
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N17W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to W winds and
seas at 10 to 16 ft dominate N of 20N between 55W and 75W.
Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas
are evident N of 20N between 35W and 48W. Gentle southerly winds
and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell prevail E of 35W. For
the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft
seas prevail from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, winds will diminish from west to east
Thu and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern
Bahamas. Seas will subside more gradually, with large northerly
swell persisting into Sun.

$$
Mora
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