[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Northerly Swell:
A 997 mb frontal low south of Bermuda near 31N64W is tracking
northeastward into the north Atlantic this evening. As a result,
near-gale to gale NW to W winds south of the low will shift north
of 31N later this evening. However, fresh to strong SW to W to NW
winds and seas of 12 to 17 ft are expected to persist north of 25N
between 50W and 75W through Thu. This area of winds and seas will
gradually shift northeastward through Sat.

Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days north
of 25N across the western and central Atlantic, as these winds and
seas will maintain hazardous marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
west-southwestward from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border
through 04N30W to near the Amazon River Delta. No significant
convection is near the ITCZ based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1025 mb high over
Georgia to the southwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong SE to S winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the northwestern and west-
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, southerly flow will increase over the western
Gulf tonight and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward
toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest
Mexico. Patchy fog is possible over the far northwestern and
west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to
move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds may
increase to near-gale to gale-force Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front extends southwestward from western Puerto
Rico to the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are occurring
near and up to 120 nm east of the front. Farther east, converging
southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection over
the eastern basin. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are present behind the front across the west-
central and southwestern basin. Gentle to fresh NE winds and 4 to
5 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan
Channel. Gentle to moderate S to SW to NW winds and seas at 6 to 8
ft in mixed moderate to large swell prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong convection occurring across the
northeastern Caribbean will gradually shift northeastward into
the Atlantic by Fri. Rough seas in NW to N swell continue across
the southwestern Caribbean. Seas will gradually diminish early
Thu. Large northerly swell will impact Atlantic passages in the
northeastern Caribbean Thu and Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds
and building seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by
late Fri, possibly reaching near-gale force off Colombia by Sat
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
Gale and Significant Northerly Swell event.

A complex low pressure system prevails W of 60W, related to the
Gale Warning described above. To the east, surface ridging
prevails, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 28N19W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to W winds and
seas at 10 to 16 ft dominate north of 20N between 55W and 75W.
Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas
are evident north of 20N between 35W and 48W. Gentle southerly
winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell prevail east of
35W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and 5
to 8 ft seas prevail from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, winds will diminish from west to east
Thu and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern
Bahamas. Strong S to SW winds will develop across offshore waters
of northern Florida ahead of the next cold front on Mon.

$$

Chan
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