[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A 996 mb occluded low off the southeastern U.S. near 31N68W is
producing widespread near-gale to gale-force winds, along with
high to very high seas of 12 to 23 ft mainly W of 70W. As the low
tracks east-northeastward through this morning, these winds and
seas are going to spread eastward north of 25N to 66.5W. Another
area of gale force winds and rough seas will develop this morning
N of 29N between 49W-52W. By this afternoon, the low is expected
to slowly weaken, which should allow marine conditions to
gradually improve through Thu.

Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of
days across the above basin, even outside of the gale warning
areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force
winds and treacherous seas associated with this weather scenario.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W to 06N13W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 02N45W. Scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ between 15W-31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridging prevails across the basin. A 1020 mb high is
analyzed near 28N95W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 8
to 10 ft are noted at the east and southeastern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 10 ft
seas exist at the south-central and central Gulf. Light to gentle
winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and large NW swell over
mainly the southeast and south-central Gulf will subside this
morning. Southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf
tonight and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward
toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest
Mexico. Looking ahead, patchy fog is possible over the far
northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of cold front
expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic to northern
Colombia. Converging southerly winds east of the cold front are
producing isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the Virgin Islands. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft are present across the western
portion of the basin mainly W of 79W. Elsewhere W of 73W, seas of
8 to 11 ft prevail. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 7 ft
prevail E of 73W.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish through
today as the front shifts eastward across the basin while
weakening. Large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in
the northeast Caribbean Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south-
central Caribbean by late Fri, possibly reaching near gale-force
off Colombia by Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
Gale Warning currently in effect.

A low pressure complex prevails W of 60W, related to the Gale
Warning described above. To the E, surface ridging prevails,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 30N22W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to W winds and
seas at 10 to 16 ft dominate N of 20N between 48W and 75W.
Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas
are evident N of 20N between 35W and 48W. Gentle southerly winds
and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell prevail E of 35W. For
the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft
seas prevail from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the large area of gale-force winds and
high seas will continue to spread across most of the open waters
west of 65W today, associated with a strong low pressure area
northeast of the northern Bahamas that will move to the northeast
of Bermuda through today. Winds will diminish from west to east
Thu and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern
Bahamas. Wave heights will subside more gradually, with large
northerly swell persisting into Sun.

$$
ERA
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