[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 07 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A deep 992 mb occluded low off the southeastern U.S. near 30N72W
is producing widespread near-gale to gale-force winds, along with
high to very high seas of 12 to 23 ft northwest of a line from
26N79W to 28N73W to 31N69W, including the central and northwest
Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
found near this low north of 28N between 65.5W and 72W. As this
low tracks east-northeastward through Wed morning, these winds
and seas are going to spread eastward north of 25N to 66.5W.
Staring Wed afternoon, this low is expected to slowly weaken
while moving northeastward, which should allow marine conditions
to gradually improve Wed afternoon through Thu.

Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of
days across the above basin, even outside of the gale warning
areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force
winds and treacherous seas associated with this weather scenario.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near
Monrovia, then extends west-southwestward to 06N14W. An ITCZ
continues from 06N14W across 03N28W to 02N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 01N to 05.5N between the
west coast of Africa and 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge runs southeastward from a 1022 mb high over
Texas to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and
seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the east and southeastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh N winds
and 6 to 9 ft seas exist at the south-central and central Gulf.
Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
rest of the Gulf. With the exception of the Bay of Campeche
where seas are to 9 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and large NW swell
over mainly the southeast and south-central Gulf will subside
through early Wed. Southerly flow will increase over the western
Gulf late Wed and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts
eastward toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over
northwest Mexico. Looking ahead, patchy fog is possible over the
far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of cold
front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic to northern
Colombia. Converging southerly winds east of the cold front are
producing isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the Virgin Islands. Fresh to near-gale NW to
N winds and seas of 10 to 16 ft are present across the
northwestern and southwestern basin, including the Yucatan
Channel, Gulf of Honduras, and Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate W to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the south-
central basin. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas at 5 to
8 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds follow the
aforementioned front through Wed. Rough to very rough seas will
also follow the front, with maximum wave heights near 16 ft
between Honduras and Grand Cayman Island. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish through mid week, as the front shifts
eastward across the basin while weakening. Large northerly swell
may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean Thu and
Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trade winds and building
seas are possible over the south- central Caribbean by late Fri,
possibly reaching near gale-force off Colombia by Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

An occluded front curves eastward from the 992 mb deep low
mentioned in the Special Features section near 30N72W, then
continues southwestward as a cold front to beyond  Dominican
Republic. A stationary front reaches eastward from 31N67W to a
1003 mb low near 29N62W, then a surface trough reaches east-
northeastward to 30N49W. Another surface trough reaches
southward to the Virgin Island from the same low. Converging
southerly winds east of the cold front and near the surface
troughs are triggering scattered moderate convection from the
Virgin Islands to 31N between 58.5W and 65.5W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to W winds and
seas at 10 to 15 ft dominate north of 20N between 58W and 75W.
Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas are evident north of 20N between 42W and 58W. At the
central Atlantic, a broad surface ridge is promoting gentle
southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell north
of 20N between 35W and 42W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate
to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail from 07N to 20N
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, a large area of gale-force winds and
high seas will spread across most of the open waters west of 65W
tonight, associated with a powerful low pressure area northeast
of the northern Bahamas that will move to the northeast of
Bermuda through Wed. Winds will diminish from west to east Thu
and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern
Bahamas. Wave heights will subside more gradually, with large
northerly swell persisting into Sun.

$$
KRV
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