[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
A cold front extends from western Hispaniola to near the Costa
Rica-Panama border. Scattered showers are found near and up to 160
nm northwest of this front. Satellite scatterometer data indicate
that near-gale to gale-force W-NW winds are occurring behind the
front, off the northeast coast of Honduras. Very rough seas of 10
to 13 ft are occurring under these winds. As this front pushes
eastward and weakens tonight and Wed, both winds and seas will
gradually subside.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A deep 991 mb occluded low off the southeastern U.S. near 29N74W
is producing widespread near-gale to gale-force winds, along with
high to very high seas of 12 to 22 ft northwest of a line from
25N78W to 29N75W to 31N71W, including the central and northwest
Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is found near this low
north of 25N between 65W and the Georgia/Florida coast. As this
low tracks east-northeastward through Wed morning, these winds and
seas are going to spread eastward north of 25N to 73W. Staring Wed
afternoon, this low is expected to slowly weaken while moving
northeastward, which should allow marine conditions to gradually
improve Wed afternoon through Thu.

Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of
days across the above basins, even outside of the gale warning
areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force
winds and treacherous seas associated with this weather scenario.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near
Monrovia, then extends west-southwestward to 05N18W. An ITCZ
continues from 05N18W across 02N35W to near the Amazon River
Delta area. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon
trough. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the ITCZ between 20W
and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge runs southeastward from a 1023 mb high over
northern Texas to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong N to NW
winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the east-central and
southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to
fresh N winds and 8 to 10 ft seas exist at the south-central and
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and large NW swell
over mainly the southeastern and south-central Gulf will subside
through early Wed. Southerly flow will increase over the western
Gulf late Wed and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward
toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest
Mexico. Looking ahead, patchy fog is possible over the far
northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of a cold
front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

Converging southerly winds east of the cold front mentioned in the
Special Features section are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from the Gulf of Venezuela northeastward to
near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Outside the Gale Warning
area, fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 10 to 18 ft are
present across the northwestern and southwestern basin, including
the Yucatan Channel, Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. The
highest seas are near the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate SW
to W winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted at the south- central
basin. Moderate to fresh S to SW to W winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish through
midweek, as the front shifts eastward across the basin while
weakening. Large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in
the northeastern basin Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south-
central basin by late Fri, possibly reaching near gale-force off
Colombia by Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

An occluded front curves eastward from the 991 mb deep low
mentioned in the Special Features section to near 29N69W, then
continues southwestward as a cold front to beyond western
Hispaniola. A stationary front reaches eastward from 29N69W to a
1002 mb low near 28N64W, then turns east-northeastward as a
surface trough to beyond 31N50W. Converging southerly winds east
of the cold front and near the surface trough are triggering
scattered moderate convection north of 20N between 52W and 65W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to W winds and
seas at 10 to 14 ft dominate north of 20N between 56W and 75W/cold
front. Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to 10
ft seas are evident north of 20N between 42W and 56W. At the
central Atlantic, a broad surface ridge is promoting gentle
southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell north
of 20N between 35W and 42W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to
fresh E to S-SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail from 07N to 20N
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned deep low will track
to the northeast of Bermuda through Wed. In its wake, winds will
diminish from west to east Thu and Fri as high pressure builds
along 28N off the northern Bahamas. Wave heights will subside more
gradually, with large northerly swell persisting into Sun.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net