[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea: A cold front extends from southern Hispaniola to
Costa Rica. Recent ASCAT data indicate that strong to gale-force
W-NW winds are occurring behind the front, with the strongest
winds occurring near the coast of Honduras. Rough to very rough
seas will persist with these winds, peaking near 18 ft south of
the Cayman Islands. The front is expected to push eastward and
weaken, causing winds and seas to gradually subside during the
next couple of days.

Western Atlantic: An occluded low off the southeastern U.S. is
producing a large area of gale-force winds and very rough seas on
its west side, just off the Florida and Georgia coasts. Fresh to
near gale-force winds are occurring elsewhere near the low. The
low is also producing deep convection on its north side near the
occluded front. The low is expected to move northeastward while it
weakens during the next couple of days, resulting in gradually
improving marine conditions over the western Atlantic.

Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of
days across the above basins, even outside of the gale warning
areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force
winds and very rough seas associated with this weather scenario.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W to 05N18W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 03N51W. No significant convection
is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly winds continue across the eastern Gulf,
generally east of 89W. This strong flow is causing rough seas of 8
to 12 ft, highest well off the coast of southwestern Florida and
the Lower Florida Keys. The winds and seas are much lower across
the western Gulf. Stable air and surface high pressure is
supporting dry weather across the entire region.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NW winds prevail
across the southern portion of the basin mainly S of 22N, along
with rough to very rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish into
mid week as high pressure builds over the basin. Southerly flow
will increase over the western Gulf late Wed and Thu as low
pressure develops over northeast Mexico and the southern Plains.
Patchy fog is possible over the far west-central Gulf by Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the NW Caribbean.

As mentioned above, the tail end of a cold front extends across
the north-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola
to Costa Rica. Scattered showers are occurring near the boundary.
Near gale-force northwesterly winds are occurring behind the
front, outside of the gale warning area, causing very rough seas
from 12 to 16 ft, roughly between Jamaica and Honduras. East of
the front, winds and seas are considerably lower, except near the
Windward Islands where fresh winds and moderate seas exist.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish through
mid week, as the aforementioned front shifts eastward across the
basin while weakening. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, large
northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast
Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are
possible over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the W Atlantic.

East of the gale-force low over the western Atlantic, weather
conditions are generally quiet. High pressure and dry air aloft is
supporting tranquil weather across the entire tropical Atlantic.
Winds across that region are light to moderate, resulting in
slight to moderate seas. A few weak surface troughs are causing
patches of showers across the subtropics, north of 23N between
50W and 65W and north of 24N between 25W and 38W. Seas are
moderate to rough across the subtropical Atlantic west of 50W and
slight to moderate east of 50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a large area of gale-force winds and
high seas will spread across most of the open waters west of 65W
tonight. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east Thu and
Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern Bahamas.

$$
Cangialosi/Delgado
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