[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings for the northwestern Caribbean Sea and western
Atlantic Ocean:
These warnings are associated with a large, complex frontal system
extending southwestward from off the Georgia/Florida coast across
southern Florida and Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean.

Caribbean Sea: A pair of cold fronts extend across the western
Caribbean. Gale force winds are expected to continue today in the
wake of the secondary front mainly N of 20N and W of 81W. Very
rough seas of 8 to 19 ft will persist with these winds. As the
fronts merge and push eastward while weaken by midweek, both
winds and seas should steadily subside.

Western Atlantic: A complex set of multiple lows are analyzed
across the western Atlantic. This area of strong pressure gradient
is supporting gale force winds N of 30N and W of 79W. Very rough
to high seas will accompany these winds. The lows will merge
within the next 24 hours while moving NE. Gale force winds will
follow the new low as it progresses northeastward. These
conditions will subside by midweek.

Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of
days across the above basins, even outside of the gale warning
areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force
winds and very rough seas associated with this weather scenario.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W to 05N17W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N44W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough curves northwestward from a 1003 mb near 25N79W
to 25N91W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are evident
from 21N-29N and W of 93W. Near-gale NW winds and very rough seas
prevail across the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
winds prevail with moderate to rough seas.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NW winds prevail
across the southern portion of the basin mainly S of 22N, along
with rough to very rough seas. Mariners are urged to exercise
caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico due to the large area of
rough to very rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish into mid
week. Southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf late Wed
and Thu as low pressure develops over northeast Mexico and the
southern Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the NW Caribbean.

A cold front curves southwestward from eastern Cuba to
near Belize. Another cold front curves southwestward from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Outside the Gale Warning
area, fresh to near-gale W to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are
noted at the northwestern basin W of 74W, including the Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds to gale force and rough to very rough
seas will spread across the northwest Caribbean through today
following a reinforcing cold front moving through the northwest
Caribbean. The front will overtake the previous front reaching
from eastern Cuba and southern Nicaragua. Strong winds and rough
seas will follow the merged front across the southwest Caribbean
through tonight. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through
mid week, as the merged front shifts eastward across the basin
while weakening. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, large northerly
swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over
the south-central Caribbean by late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the W Atlantic.

To the east of the complex low/frontal system analyzed across the
western Atlantic, a 1005 mb is near 27N57W. A surface trough
extends from 31N51W to the low to 22N71W. A surface ridge
prevails to the E of the low/trough. Fresh to strong SW winds
with 8 to 12 ft seas are evident near the low from 23N to 27N
between 52W and 66W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 8 to 12
ft seas in large NW swell dominate north of 27N between 43W and
63W. Gentle to moderate ENE to E to S winds and 4 to 8 ft seas
are present elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, mariners are urged to exercise caution
as a powerful low pressure system prevails across the western
Atlantic today, then reaching near Bermuda by early Wed. Expect
strong gales W of 76W today and seas building in excess of 20 ft
over the Gulf Stream off northeast Florida starting early Tue as
the low system moves eastward. A large area of gale-force winds
and high seas will spread across most of the open waters west of
65W tonight. The low pressure system will remain northeast of
Bermuda from Wed and Thu, supporting a large field of strong winds
and rough seas over much of the region mainly north of 22N and
east of 75W. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west
to east by midweek as high pressure builds across the region.

$$
ERA
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