[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 06 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings for the south-central Gulf of Mexico, northwestern
Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean:
These warnings are associated with a large, complex frontal
system extending southwestward from off the Georgia coast across
southern Florida and Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean.

Gulf of Mexico: A 1000 mb low pressure system is over the
southeast Gulf near 26N82W. A cold front related to this low
extends across the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring across the southeastern Gulf. Gale-
force winds with very rough seas of 12 to 19 ft are found at the
south-central and southeastern Gulf. Once this front has moved
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tue morning, marine
conditions at these locations will gradually improve.

Caribbean Sea: As the aforementioned cold front progresses
southeastward  across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through
Tue, expect gale winds and very rough seas of 8 to 17 ft to
persist. As this front pushes farther eastward and weaken by
midweek, both winds and seas should steadily subside.

Western Atlantic: A pair of deep frontal lows, one off the
Georgia coast near 31N78.5W and another one off southeast,
Florida near 26.5N78.5W are going to gradually track eastward
across the western Atlantic through Wed. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen north of from 26N to 29N  between 77W and
the Florida coast. Similar convection is depicted from 23N and
31N between 71W and 76W including the Bahamas. As a result, gale
to strong gale winds along with very high seas of 18 to 22 ft
are expected north of 26N between the Florida coast/Bahamas and
67W from late tonight through Wed morning.

Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of
days across the above basins, even outside of the gale warning
areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force
winds and very rough seas associated with this complex system.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia coast
just south of Monrovia and runs westward to 05N15W. An ITCZ
continues from 05N15W across 03N30W to 02N44W. No significant
convection is depicted in association with the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a deep 1000 mb low
pressure and it related Gale Warning.

A surface trough curves northwestward from a 1000 mb near 26N82W
through the central Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present at the southeastern Gulf. Gentle to
moderate NW to N winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft are also found at
this location. Over the NE Gulf N to NE strong winds and seas 4
to 7 ft prevail. Fresh to strong NW winds and 7 to 12 ft seas
are evident at the Bay of Campeche. Outside the Gale Warning
area, strong to near-gale NW to N winds and seas at 11 to 17 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a 1000 mb low pressure system is over the
southeast Gulf near 26N82W. A cold front related to this low
extends across the NW Caribbean. Behind the front, gale force
winds prevail across the Yucatan Channel, with rough to very
rough seas S of 24N. These conditions will prevail through
tonight mainly over the south-central and southeast Gulf as the
low pressure and associated front move east of the basin.
Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of
Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the
expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas
associated with this weather scenario. Winds and seas will
diminish into mid week. Southerly flow will increase over the
western Gulf late Wed and Thu as low pressure develops over
northeast Mexico and the southern Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

A cold front curves southwestward from eastern Cuba to
near Belize. Another cold front curves southwestward from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Outside the Gale Warning
area, fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are
noted at the northwestern basin, including the Cayman Islands.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to W and 4 to 6 ft seas
are present south of Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, winds to gale force and rough to very rough
seas will spread across the northwest Caribbean into Tue
following a reinforcing cold front moving through the northwest
Caribbean. The front will overtake the previous front reaching
from central Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Strong winds and
rough seas will follow the merged front across the southwest
Caribbean through Tue night. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish through mid week, as the front shifts eastward across
the central Caribbean while weakening. Looking ahead to Thu and
Fri, large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the
northeast Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds and building
seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

Other than the complex frontal system mentioned in the Special
Features section, a surface trough curves northeastward from the
a warm front that its associated with a low pressure off the
coasts of Georgia. Scattered moderate convection is depicted up
near and south of these features from the southeast Bahamas to
near 27N54W. At the central Atlantic, another surface trough
curves southwestward from 23N46W to beyond 31N at 33W. Fresh to
strong SW winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are evident near the 1005
mb low from 22N to 26N between 55W and 64W. W to NW winds and
seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen off northeastern Florida and in the
Great Bahama Bank. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 9 to 12
ft seas in large NW swell dominate north of 27N between 45W and
67W. Gentle to moderate ENE to E to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are present across the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between
the West coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, mariners are urged to exercise
caution as a powerful low pressure over the northeast Gulf moves
across Florida tonight and into the western Atlantic Tue,
reaching near Bermuda by early Wed. Expect strong gales out of
the north and seas building in excess of 20 ft over the Gulf
Stream off northeast Florida starting early Tue as the low moves
eastward. A large area of gale-force winds and high seas will
spread across most of the open waters west of 65W through Tue
night. The low pressure will remain northeast of Bermuda from
Wed and Thu, supporting a large field of strong winds and rough
seas over much of the region mainly north of 22N and east of
75W. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to
east as high pressure builds across the region.

$$
KRV
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