[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings for the south-central Gulf of Mexico, northwestern
Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean:
These warnings are associated with a large, complex frontal system
extending southwestward from off the Georgia coast across southern
Florida and Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean.

Gulf of Mexico: A cold front curves southwestward from a deep 998
mb low off Cap Coral, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the
south-central and southeastern Gulf. Gale-force winds with very
rough seas of 15 to 20 ft are found at the south-central and
southeastern Gulf. Once this front has moved into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tue morning, marine conditions at
these locations will gradually improve.

Caribbean Sea: As the aforementioned cold front progresses
southeastward from the Yucatan Channel into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea tonight through Tue, expect gale winds and very
rough seas of 14 to 18 ft to persist. As this front pushes farther
eastward and weaken Tue afternoon and evening, both winds and
seas should steadily subside.

Western Atlantic: A pair of deep frontal lows, one off the
Georgia coast and another one off Miami, Florida are going to
gradually track eastward across the western Atlantic through Wed.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of
20N between 73W and the Florida coast, including the Bahamas. As a
result, Gale to strong gale winds along with very high seas of 18
to 23 ft are expected north of 26N between the Florida
coast/Bahamas and 67W from late tonight through Wed evening.

Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of
days across the above basins, even outside of the gale warning
areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force
winds and very rough seas associated with this complex system.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia coast
just south of Monrovia and runs westward to 05N17W. An ITCZ
continues from 05N17W across 03N30W to east of French Guiana at
05N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and up
to 50 nm north of the ITCZ west of 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a deep 998 mb low
pressure and it related Gale Warning.

A surface trough curves northwestward from a deep 998 mb low off
Cape Coral, Florida to beyond New Orleans, Louisiana. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present at the
east-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to NW
winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are also found at these locations.
Moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident at the
Bay of Campeche. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-
gale NW to N winds and seas at 11 to 17 ft prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, gale-force winds and very rough seas will
prevail through this evening at the south-central and southeastern
Gulf as the low pressure and associated front move southeast of
the Gulf. Afterward, winds and seas will diminish through midweek.
Southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf late Wed and
Thu as low pressure develops over northeastern Mexico and the
southern Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

A stationary front curves southwestward from eastern Cuba to
near the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 90 nm southeast of
this boundary. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong W
to NW winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are noted at the northwestern
basin, including the Cayman Islands and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate
to fresh with locally strong SW to W and 4 to 6 ft seas are
present near the stationary front, including near Jamaica and the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the cold front currently moving southeastward
from the Yucatan Channel is expected to merge with the
aforementioned stationary front on Tue. Strong winds and rough
seas will follow this merged front across the southwest Caribbean
through Tue night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through
midweek, as the front shifts eastward across the central
Caribbean while weakening. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, large
northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeastern
basin. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible
over the south-central basin by late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

Other than the complex frontal system mentioned in the Special
Features section, a surface trough curves northeastward from the
999 nm low off Miami across another 1001 mb low near 35N66W to
beyond 31N52W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near
and south of these features from the southeast Bahamas to near
25N58W. At the central Atlantic, another surface trough curves
southwestward from 23N46W to beyond 31N at 33W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen up to 60 nm along either side of this trough.

Fresh to strong SW winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are evident near
the 1001 mb low from 22N to 26N between 55W and 63W. SW to NW
winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are seen off northeastern Florida and
in the Great Bahama Bank. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 9 to
12 ft seas in large NW swell dominate north of 27N between 40W and
57W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to
7 ft in moderate northerly swell exist north of 20N between 35W
and the Florida coast/Bahamas. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh ENE to E to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present across
the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, as the complex and powerful frontal
system moves across the western Atlantic, strong northerly gales
and very high seas over the Gulf Stream off northeast Florida
will expand and spread eastward across most of the open waters
west of 65W through Tue night. The system will remain northeast
of Bermuda from Wed and Thu, supporting a large field of strong
winds and rough seas over much of the region mainly north of 22N
and east of 75W. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from
west to east as high pressure builds across the region.

$$

Chan
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