[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a low pressure
just west of Bermuda from 29N61W SW to 23N65W to Haiti adjacent
waters. Scattered moderate convection continues to affect the
region N of 26N from the front to 50W. Ongoing near gale to gale-
force W to NW winds behind and ahead of the front will continue to
affect the offshore zones N of 24N through Fri as the front
continues an eastward track. Seas currently 12 to 14 ft will
increase to up to 20 ft tonight into Fri. Winds will fall below
gale-force Fri night, with gradually decreasing winds and
diminishing seas into Sat.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southeast to south
winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead
of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat.
The front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and across
the eastern part of the basin on Sun. Winds ahead of the front are
forecast to reach minimal gale force over the eastern Gulf Sat
night with seas building to 10 ft.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues westward to 08N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N26W to 03N40W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ
and runs from 09N21W to 02N23W. Convection is limited.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Please, see the Special Features Section for more information.

High pressure of 1019 mb located over the NE Gulf dominates the
basin. Light and variable winds are noted under the influence of
this system over the east and central Gulf while gentle to moderate
southerly winds are over the western Gulf. Seas are generally 1
to 3 ft. Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, covers the
Gulf waters E of 87W and the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including
the Yucatan Channel. These clouds are the result of strong SW
winds aloft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will shift E today.
Fresh to strong southeast to south winds and scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead of
the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. The
front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and across the
eastern part of the basin on Sun. By Sun night, this cold front is
expected to move E of the Gulf. On Sun, a low pressure system
will move eastward across the N Gulf states bringing a very tight
pressure gradient across the Gulf waters. Gale conditions and very
rough seas are expected across parts of the Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida Sun night and Mon. The
low pressure will cross Florida and move into the western Atlantic
likely late on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean
while a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the
basin, as a low pressure system moves eastward from the western
Atlantic into the central Atlantic. Under this weather pattern,
light to gentle winds are noted per scatterometer data over the
eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, with
the exception of fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia, in
the lee of eastern Cuba, and between Haiti and Jamaica. Seas are 2
to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the SW Caribbean. Strong SW flow
aloft is advecting tropical moisture from the Bay of Campeche and
the Yucatan Peninsula across west and central Cuba into the
Bahamas. An approaching cold front is generating some cloudiness
with possible showers over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and
Hispaniola. Patches of low level moisture, with isolated to
scattered passing showers, are noted elsewhere, more concentrated
over the SW part of the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to be relatively
low through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W
of 75W. Behind the front, gale force westerly winds and rough to
very rough seas are possible across the Yucatan Channel and the NW
Caribbean Mon and Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW N
Atlantic waters through today.

A gale center of 996 mb is located SE of Bermuda near 31N61W. The
associated cold front enters the forecast region near 31N54W and
continues SW crossing just N of Puerto Rico and across the N
coast of Hispaniola. A band of mainly low clouds with embedded
showers is related to the front. Stiletto derived winds data
provide observations of gale force on the south side of the low
center and mainly N of 29N between 60W and 66W. Gale force winds
are also noted ahead of the front N of 27N to 52W. Seas of 12 to
18 ft are within these winds. The low pressure and associated
front are also producing a large area of fresh to strong winds
that cover mainly the waters N of 22N between 50W and 70W with
seas of 8 to 12 ft. An area of showers and thunderstorms is N of
25N ahead of the cold front to about 45W. The remainder of the
western Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a
1019 mb high pressure situated over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Another
ridge dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic.
gentle to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the
tropical Atlantic. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed E of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure E of Bermuda will move
eastward just N of 31N today, before lifting NE away from the
forecast waters. Strong to gale force cyclonic winds and rough to
very rough seas associated with this broad low pressure will
continue to affect the waters north of 24N and E of 65W today.
Another cold front will move southeastward across northern waters
Fri night into Sat night, bringing fresh to strong west winds on
both sides of the front north of 28N into Sun. Low pressure and a
new frontal system will move across the northwest waters Mon
through Tue night. Gale force winds and very rough seas will be
possible with this system.

$$
GR
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