[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas,
from 29N northward between 63W and 66W. Expect W-to-NW strong to
near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 22N
northward between the cold front and 72W. An exception is for
rough to very rough seas from 23N northward between the cold front
and 72W. Expect for the remainder of the area, from 21N northward
between the cold front and 78W, and to the east of the Bahamas:
fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NW swell. A second area
of gale-force winds: from 29N northward between 55W and the cold
front, SE-to-S gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas.
Elsewhere from 23N northward between 52W and the cold front: SE-
to-S strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas. Remainder of
the area: from 22N northward, to the east of the cold front to a
line 31N41W 24N50W 22N55W: fresh or slower winds, and rough seas,
in NW swell. A cold front curves through 31N57W to 23N60W 20N67W,
to the northern parts of the Windward Passage. A surface trough is
about 620 nm to the E and the SE of the cold front, from 16N60W
northeastward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 25N northward between 35W and the cold
front. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time
period that ended at 02/0000 UTC, are: 2.18 in Bermuda, according
to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 08N17W. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough
is along 20W/23W from 03N to 08N. The ITCZ is along 03N25W 03N33W
02N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, moderate or slower winds,
and slight seas, span the entire area. A surface ridge extends
from a 1021 mb 28N87W high pressure center, toward the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure over the region will shift E on Fri. Fresh to
strong southeast to south winds and scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the western Gulf Fri night, then shift
eastward into Sun, in advance of a cold front. By Sun night, this
cold front is expected to move E of the Gulf, with strong to
possible gale-force W to NW winds along with rough seas expanding
across much of the basin Mon through Mon night. Gale force winds
are possible in the NE Gulf Sat night. Winds and seas are forecast
to diminish Tue and Tue night as high pressure builds over the
area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W and 77W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 13N
southward between 73W and 80W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from
17N northward between 74W and 81W, in the Windward Passage and in
the coastal waters of Cuba. Mostly moderate and some fresh NE
winds are from 80W westward from Honduras northward. Moderate or
slower winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Slight to
moderate seas are from Jamaica southward between the Windward
Passage and 80W. Slight seas are elsewhere in the area.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the area.

The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will force
fresh to locally strong northeast winds offshore Colombia tonight.
Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be relatively low
through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean
Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W.
Behind the front, strong to near gale force westerly winds will
build across the Yucatan Channel and extreme NW Caribbean Mon and
Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force wind warning, and the cold front/surface trough.

Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh NE winds are within 360 nm on either side of the line
31N15W 20N25W 11N36W. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest
of the area.

Low pressure W of Bermuda will strengthen as it moves ESE along
and just N of 31N through Fri, before lifting NE away from area
waters. Strong to gale force cyclonic winds and rough to very
rough seas will accompany this broad low pressure for waters north
of 24N into Fri. Another cold front will move southeastward
across northern waters Fri night into Sat night, bringing fresh to
strong west winds on both sides of the front north of 28N into
Sun. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move across the
northwest waters Mon through Tue night. Strong to near gale force
winds will be possible with this system.

$$
mt/gr
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