[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a low pressure
just west of Bermuda from 29N61W SW to 23N65W to Haiti adjacent
waters. Scattered moderate convection continues to affect the
region N of 26N from the front to 50W. Ongoing near gale to gale-
force W to NW winds behind and ahead of the front will continue to
affect the offshore zones N of 24N through Fri as the front
continues an eastward track. Seas currently 12 to 14 ft will
increase to up to 20 ft tonight into Fri. Winds will fall below
gale-force Fri night, with gradually decreasing winds and
diminishing seas into Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 10N14W to
09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W to 05N30W to 02N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between
13W and 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a pair of high pressure centers, one
in Alabama and another over northern Florida, covers the basin.
This is leading to light to gentle variable winds E of 94W while
gentle to moderate SE are ongoing over the far western Gulf. Seas
remain slight basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will shift E on
Fri. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds and scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Gulf Fri
night, then shift eastward into Sun, in advance of a cold front.
By Sun night, this cold front is expected to move E of the Gulf,
with strong to possible gale-force W to NW winds along with rough
seas expanding across much of the basin Mon through Mon night.
Gale force winds are possible in the NE Gulf Sat night. Winds and
seas subside Tue and Tue night as high pressure builds over the
area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW
Caribbean is generating a tight pressure gradient in portions of
the W and SW basin. This is supporting moderate to fresh N winds
between 73W and 83W along with 3-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NE
to E winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the central
Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong northeast winds
offshore Colombia tonight. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast
to be relatively low through Sat. A cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly
winds to the W of 75W. Behind the front, strong to near gale force
westerly winds will build across the Yucatan Channel and the extreme
NW Caribbean Mon and Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale warning in effect for portions of the SW N
Atlantic waters through Fri.

Fresh to gale-force winds and rough seas are ongoing in the SW N
Atlantic waters between 50W and 72W associated with the frontal
system described in the Special Features. Large NW swell
associated with this system is bringing 8-15 ft seas to the
Bahamas offshore waters in addition to the fresh to near gale
force cyclonic winds. Farther east, in the central subtropical
Atlantic, the remnants of a front are analyzed as a surface trough
that is supporting a broad area of scattered showers. The eastern
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge, which is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
moderate seas to 7 ft over that region. In the tropical Atlantic,
gentle to moderate trades are ongoing along with moderate seas to
7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure S of Bermuda will
strengthen as it moves ESE along and just N of 31N through Fri,
before lifting NE away from area waters. Strong to gale force
cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany this
broad low pressure for waters north of 24N into Fri. Another cold
front will move southeastward across northern waters Fri night
into Sat night, bringing fresh to strong west winds on both sides
of the front north of 28N into Sun. Low pressure and a new frontal
system will move across the northwest waters Mon through Tue
night. Strong to near gale force winds will be possible with this
system.

$$
Ramos
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