[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from complex 996 mb low
pressure east of Bermuda through 32N59W SW through 20N60W to the
southern entrance to the Mona Passage near 17N68W to SW Haiti.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues to affect
the region N of 23N from the front to 40W. Ongoing near gale to
gale-force W to NW winds behind the front and N of 26.5N, and
within 180 nm ahead of the front and N of 27N will continue to
affect the offshore zones N of 24N through Fri as the front
continues an eastward track. Seas currently 10 to 18 ft behind the
front will increase to up to 20 ft tonight into Fri. Winds will
fall below gale-force Fri night, with gradually decreasing winds
and diminishing seas into Sat, as the low lifts NE and away from
the area waters.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southeast to south
winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead
of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region late
Sat. The front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and
across the eastern part of the basin on Sun. Winds ahead of the
front are forecast to reach minimal gale force over the central
Gulf Sat evening, and then the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun
morning, with seas building 8 to 12 ft.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A weak monsoon trough meanders along the coastal states of the
Gulf of Guinea to 04.5N00W to 03N06W. The ITCZ extends from
06.5N16W to 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is seen within
180 nm N of the ITCZ W of 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Please, see the Special Features Section for more information.

High pressure of 1018 mb located over the NE Gulf just offshore of
the entrance to Mobile Bay dominates the basin. Light and
variable winds are noted under the influence of this system over
the east and central Gulf while moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds are over the western Gulf W of 94W. Seas are generally 1 to
3 ft E of 95W and 3 to 5 ft W of 95W. Abundant middle and high
level cloudiness associated with a jetstream segment, with
possible showers, covers the Yucatan Channel and Straits of
Florida.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will shift E today.
Fresh to strong southeast to south winds and scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead of
the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region late Sat.
The front will move across the central Gulf Sat evening, and
across the eastern part of the basin through Sun morning. By Sun
night, this cold front is expected to move E of the Gulf. On Sun,
an associated low pressure system will move eastward across the N
Gulf states bringing a very tight pressure gradient across the
Gulf waters. W-NW to W gale-force winds and very high seas are
expected across parts of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel
and the Straits of Florida Sun night and Mon. Seas may reach to 20
ft during this time across the south-central and southeast Gulf. The
low pressure will cross Florida and move into the western Atlantic
likely late on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean
while a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the
basin, as low pressure moves eastward across the west-central
Atlantic. A cold front has moved across the extreme NE Caribbean
this morning and extends from the extreme northern Leeward Islands
W-SW to the southern entrance to the Mona Passage, then hangs up
along the terrain of SW Haiti. Under this weather pattern, gentle
N winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean north of the front,
and gentle NE to E winds are south of the front. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate NE to E winds prevail, become E to SE across the NW
basin. with the exception of fresh trade winds near the coast of
Colombia, in the lee of eastern Cuba, and between Haiti and
Jamaica. Seas are 3 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the SW
Caribbean, and 6 to 9 ft in the passages of the NE Caribbean and
strong Atlantic swell is now reaching the area behind the front.
Strong SW flow aloft is advecting tropical moisture from the Bay
of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula across west and central Cuba
into the Bahamas. Northerly low level wind flow is generating
some cloudiness and light showers across the northern slopes of
the interior mountains of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands. Patches of low level moisture, with isolated to
scattered passing showers, are noted elsewhere, more concentrated
over the SW part of the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to be relatively
low through Sat, except for moderate to briefly large NW swell
moving through the NE Caribbean Passages and into the basin. A new
cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening,
preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Behind the
front, gale force westerly winds and unusually high seas are
expected across the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Mon and
Mon night. Seas may reach as high as 18 ft in W-NW swell across
the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Caribbean waters late Mon and Mon
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW N
Atlantic waters through today.

A complex low center of 996 mb is located E of Bermuda near
33N57.5W, with a secondary 996 mb low near 30.5N60.5W. The
associated cold front extends from near 32N59W SW through 20N60W
to the Anegada Passage then passes just S of Puerto Rico. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection continues to affect the
region N of 23N from the front to 40W. Further S along the front,
a band of mainly low clouds with embedded showers is along the
front. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of gale-force
southerly winds within 180 nm E of the front and N of 27N, while
westerly gales on the S side of the low center are N of 26N
between 53W and 62W. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are within the gale winds
W of the front, and 8 to 11 ft E of the front. The low pressure
and associated front are also producing a large area of fresh to
strong winds that cover mainly the waters N of 22N between 45W
and 65W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. The remainder of the western
Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1019 mb
high pressure situated over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Another ridge
dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic. Gentle
to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the
tropical Atlantic. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed E of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure E of Bermuda will move
eastward and just N of 31N today, before lifting NE away from the
forecast waters tonight through Sat. Strong to gale force
cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas associated with this
broad low pressure will continue to affect the waters north of 24N
and E of 65W today. Another cold front will move southeastward
across the northern waters Fri night into Sat night, bringing
fresh to strong west winds on both sides of the front north of 28N
into Sun. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move across
the northwest waters Mon through Tue night. Gale-force winds and
large seas to 18 ft in N to NE swell are possible with this
system.

$$
Stripling
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