[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 9  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING E OF 35W...

The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1027 mb located
over the Atlantic, west of the Madeira Islands near 32N26W and
lower pressure over western Africa will continue to support
gale-force winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and
Tarfaya. The forecast calls for N or NE winds 8 (Beaufort Wind
Scale) with severe gusts. A Gale Warning is in effect through at
least 09/1200 UTC.

For more details refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, and continues SW to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N15 to the Equator at 25W, to 01S38W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is evident from 04S to 05N between
17W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure off the Carolinas
coast across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is
promoting fresh to strong E to SE winds across the Gulf, with
the exception of gentle winds in the NE Gulf. Seas are in the 4
to 8 ft range W of 90W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft ft E of 90W, except 1
to 3 ft in the coastal waters of W Florida. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity is near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high will shift further
into the Atlantic through mid week. Fresh to strong SE winds
will develop over most of Gulf tonight. Winds will then become
SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front,
increasing to near gale- force across the central Bay of
Campeche Tue night. This next cold front is expected to move
into the western Gulf Wed morning. The front will reach from the
Florida panhandle to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by
Thu morning, then move SE of the area Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail off the coast of Colombia, N of
Venezuela, in the Gulf of Honduras as well as the Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are
in the 7 to 9 ft range off the coast of Colombia, and 5 to 6 ft
elsewhere, with the exception of 2 to 4 ft in the NE Gulf.

An Atlantic cold front extends across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico
and the US/UK Virgin Islands generating mostly cloudy skies and
some shower activity. The front is forecast to linger in the
vicinity of the above mentioned islands tonight and Tue helping
to maintain the shower activity.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western
Atlantic through Wed, tightening the pressure gradient across
the region. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding
in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean tonight,
and pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia tonight
through Thu night. The building high pressure will also support
fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south
of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting this
evening. Winds will start to diminish the end of the week as the
high pressure shifts eastward and well NE of the region. Looking
ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu
night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N44W and continues
SW to over Hispaniola. A surface trough follows and stretches
from 30N48W to northern Cuba. Mainly low clouds and isolated
showers are associated with this front and trough. Fresh to
strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of 28N and E
of the front to about 38W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and
seas of 9 to 15 ft in NW are noted N of 26N and W of the trough
to about 64W. A 1025 mb high pressure located off the Carolinas
coast follow the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
region is under the influence of 1029 mb high pressure situated
near 39N17W. Fresh to strong NE winds are across the southern
periphery of the high pressure center roughly from 12N to 30N
between 20W and the west coast of Africa, including the Cabo
Verde Islands. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds. Elsewhere
across the tropical Atlantic gentle to moderate trade winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds will
prevail N of 29N and E of 60W tonight. Large NW swell will build
across the NE waters through Tue night. High pressure in the far
western Atlantic will drift to near Bermuda by Wed night, then
shift E Thu and Fri. The associated ridge will support moderate
to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean
approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed
through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of
Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed evening and increase to
strong to near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross the
Florida Peninsula Thu night, with gales possible Thu night N of
30N and E of the front. The front will reach from 31N74W to the
NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas Sat morning.

$$
KRV
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