[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090905
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING E OF 35W...

The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1031 mb centered
near 39N13W and lower pressure over western Africa will continue
to support gale- force winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for N or NE winds 8
(Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts. A Gale Warning is in
effect through at least 09/1200 UTC. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are in
the area of gale force winds.

For more details refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to
to 01S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident from 04S to 05N between 20and 46

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure in the western Atlantic across
the Gulf coast states. The pressure gradient between the area of
high pressure and 1001 mb low pressure over Mexico is supporting
fresh to strong winds across the Gulf waters W of 85W. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted E of 85W. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range W of
90W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except over the NE Gulf where 2-4 ft
seas are noted.

For the forecast, the high will shift further into the Atlantic
through mid week. Fresh to strong SE winds will become SE to S
today through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This next
cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning.
The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area
Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic near 32N72W.
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the
Colombian Low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Winds are near- gale
force off the coast of Colombia. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and a trough in the Gulf of Honduras is
supporting fresh to strong winds in the Gulf. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in
the 8-10 ft range in the south central Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over
the remainder of the central Caribbean waters. Seas in the Gulf of
Honduras are in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere, seas are in the 2-4
ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will further build across the
western Atlantic through Wed, tightening the pressure gradient
across the region. This will result in fresh to strong winds
expanding in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean,
pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia through Thu
night. The building high pressure will also support fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will start to diminish the end of the
week as the high pressure shifts eastward and well NE of the
region. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the
Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over the NW
Caribbean late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N43W and continues
SW to the northern Windward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are
noted on either side of the front, N of 28N between 35W and 60W.
Outside of the gales off Africa, fresh to strong winds are noted
from 15N to 31N and E of 25W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
generally prevail. Seas of 12 to 16 ft are found N of 28N between
46W and 65W, with seas greater than 8 ft elsewhere N of a line
from 30N73W to 23N58W to 30N33W. Outside of the large seas in the
vicinity of the gales off Africa, seas of 8-12 ft are found N of
10N and E of 30W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, large NW swell will prevail across
the NE waters through tonight before shifting E of the area. High
pressure in the far western Atlantic will drift to near Bermuda by
Wed night, then shift E Thu and Fri. The associated ridge will
support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and
the Caribbean approaches through tonight, becoming fresh to strong
Wed through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of
Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed evening and increase to strong
to near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching
cold front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula
Thu night, with gales possible Thu night N of 30N and E of the
front. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri
morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning.

$$
AL
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