[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING E OF 35W...

The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1027 mb located
over the Atlantic, west of the Madeira Islands near 32N26W and
lower pressure over western Africa will continue to support
gale-force winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and
Tarfaya. The forecast calls for N or NE winds 8 (Beaufort Wind
Scale) with severe gusts. A Gale Warning is in effect through at
least 09/1200 UTC.

For more details refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, and continues SW to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N17 to the Equator at 23W, to the Brazilian coast near
02S44W. Most of the convective activity is just south of the
Equator. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident from 00N to 04N between 19W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure off the Carolinas coast across
Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is promoting fresh to
strong SE winds across the NW Gulf based on buoy observations.
Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are
in the 4 to 7 ft range W of 90W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft ft E of 90W,
except 1 to 3 ft in the coastal waters of E Florida. Some shower
and thunderstorm activity is near the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift into the Atlantic
through mid week. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over
most of Gulf this evening and tonight. Winds will then become SE
to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front, increasing
to near gale-force across the central Bay of Campeche Tue night.
This next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf
Wed morning, reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of basin by
Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail off the coast of Colombia, as well
as N of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf
of Honduras as well as the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range off the
coast of Colombia, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of 15N and E of
80W. Seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate most of the NW Caribbean, with
the exception of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward
Passage.

An Atlantic cold front extends across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico
and the US/UK Virgin Islands generating mostly cloudy skies and
some shower activity. The front is forecast to linger in the
vicinity of the above mentioned islands tonight and Tue helping
to maintain the shower activity.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western
Atlantic through Wed, tightening the pressure gradient across the
region. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding in
areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean tonight, and
pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia tonight
through Thu night. The building high pressure will also support
fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south
of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting this evening.
Winds will start to diminish the end of the week as the high
pressure shifts eastward and well NE of the region. Looking
ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu
night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N44W and continues
SW to over Hispaniola. A weakening reinforcing front follows and
stretches from 31N50W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Mainly
low clouds and isolated showers are associated with these fronts.
Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of
26N and E of the main front to about 40W. Fresh to strong W to
NW winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft in NW are noted N of 27N and W of
the reinforcing front to about 66W. A 1025 mb high pressure
located off the Carolinas coast follow the fronts. The remainder
of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of 1026
mb high pressure situated near the Azores. Fresh to strong NE
winds are seen on scatterometer data across the southern periphery
of the high pressure center roughly from 12N to 24N between 20W
and 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
with these winds. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic gentle
to moderate trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the main front will weaken as it
moves slowly across the E and SE forecast waters through Tue. A
reinforcing cold front will move across the area through Tue,
accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 29N tonight.
Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters through
Tue night. High pressure off the North Carolina coast will drift
SE to near Bermuda by Wed night, then shift E Thu and Fri. The
associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across the
Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue night,
becoming fresh to strong Wed through Thu. Fresh southerly winds
will develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed
evening and increase to strong to near gale-force Wed night
through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is
expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu night, reach from
31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to
the central Bahamas Sat morning.

$$
GR
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