[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly inland over Africa. The ITCZ
begins near 07N16W and continues to 00N30W and to 03S40W.
Isolated convection is noted from 04S to 04N between 17W and
22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure located over South Carolina extends a
ridge across the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this
system, moderate to fresh winds are over the western Gulf of
Mexico, with fresh to locally strong winds noted offshore the
northern Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or less, and seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, the high center will shift into the Atlantic
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off
the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula through tonight and
Mon night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over most of
the Gulf Mon afternoon and Mon night, and become SE to S Tue
through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This next cold
front is expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning and
reach from near Mobile Bay to the NW coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula by Thu morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward toward Cuba from high
pressure located over South Carolina. A recent satellite
scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, with
seas of 5 to 8 ft outside the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to
fresh NW winds are noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the
coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela through tonight. High pressure
will build across the western Atlantic early next week,
tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will
result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across
most of the central Caribbean Mon night, pulsing to near gale-
force at night off of Colombia Mon night through Thu night. The
building high pressure will also support fresh to strong winds
developing in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in
the Gulf of Honduras starting Mon evening. Winds will start to
diminish the end of the week as the area of high pressure shifts
eastward and further from the area. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N49W and continues
SW to near 20N70W. A reinforcing front follows and stretches
from 31N55W to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong S to SW
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of 27N and E of the main
front to about 45W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are noted in
the wake of the reinforcing front to 70W and north of 27N, where
seas are 8 to 10 ft. North of 28N, and between fronts, SW to W
winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are evident. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of 1024 mb high
pressure located near 29N30W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow covers the waters N of 20N and E of the above mentioned
main front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are near the coast
of Africa from 10N to 30N due to the pressure gradient between
the high pressure and lower pressures over E Africa. Seas are
generally 6 to 9 ft within these winds, except in the lee of the
lee of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the tropical
Atlantic and E of the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate trade
winds, and 5 to 7 ft seas exist.

For the forecast west of 55W, the leading cold front will weaken
as it moves slowly across the E and SE forecast waters through
early Tue. The reinforcing cold front will move across the area
through Mon night, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N
of 27N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters
late tonight through Tue night. High pressure will move off the
Carolina coasts Mon, and drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night,
then shift E Thu. The associated ridge will support moderate to
fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean
approaches Mon through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed
through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of
Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and increase to strong to near
gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu
night and reach the NW Bahamas Fri morning.

$$
Mora
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