[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N15W to
06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 01N20W to 02S44W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
04S to 06N between 16W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure off the Carolina coast across
the Gulf coast states. A thermal trough has moved off the Yucatan
coast into the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity
of the trough. Moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere. Seas
are in the 6-8 ft range in the region of strong winds, and 5-6 ft
elsewhere W of 90W. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail E of 90W.

For the forecast, the high center will shift into the Atlantic
through early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop
over most of Gulf this afternoon and tonight. Winds will then
become SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold
front. This next cold front is expected to move into the western
Gulf Wed morning, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the
area Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail off the coast of Colombia, as well
as N of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf
of Honduras as well as the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range off the
coast of Colombia, and 6-7 ft elsewhere S of 15N and E of 80W.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western
Atlantic early this week, tightening the pressure gradient across
the region. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding in
areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean tonight,
pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia tonight
through Thu night. The building high pressure will also support
fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south of
Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting this evening.
Winds will start to diminish the end of the week as the area of
high pressure shifts eastward and further from the area. Looking
ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu
night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 25N55W to N of Hispaniola. A
reinforcing cold front extending from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas.
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are noted N of 28N
within 90 nm east of the first cold front. Fresh to strong winds,
and seas of 8-12 ft, are also N of 28N W of the reinforcing front
to 65W. moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of 23N and W of
the fronts. Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure center is near
29N28W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. The pressure gradient between the high center the the
monsoon trough over Africa is supporting fresh to strong winds,
and seas of 8-10 ft, SE of the high center to the coast of
Africa. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the
discussion waters. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the leading cold front will weaken
as it moves slowly across the E and SE forecast waters through
early Tue. The reinforcing front will move across the area
through tonight, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of
27N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters
through Tue night. High pressure off the Carolina coast will drift
SE to near Bermuda by Wed night, then shift E Thu. The associated
ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across the Great
Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches today through Tue night,
becoming fresh to strong Wed through Thu. Fresh southerly winds
will develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and
increase to strong to near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead
of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross the
Florida Peninsula Thu night and reach the NW Bahamas Fri morning.

$$
AL
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