[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through The Gambia coast
and continues southwestward to 07N16W. An ITCZ extends from 07N16W
to 03N20W to the Equator at 30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 05N
between 12W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb located over South Carolina extends a
ridge across the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this system,
gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted, with the exception
of moderate to fresh SE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft over the western Gulf and 1 to 3 ft
over the eastern Gulf. Seas of 3 ft are in the Yucatan Channel.
Multilayer clouds dominate the northern Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift into the Atlantic
on Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast
of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong
SE winds will develop over most of Gulf Mon afternoon and Mon
night, and become SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching
cold front. This next cold front is expected to move into the
western Gulf Wed morning, and reach from near Mobile Bay to the
NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward toward Cuba from a 1021 mb
high pressure located over South Carolina. A stationary front
boundary remains over eastern Cuba. Mainly low clouds and
possible showers are near the front. Fresh to strong trades are
noted per scatterometer data over the south-central Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela, with seas of 5 to 8 ft outside
the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to
5 prevail elsewhere, with the exception of the NW Caribbean where
seas of 2 to 4 ft are observed.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the
coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela tonight. High pressure will
build SE across the western Atlantic early next week, tightening
the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in
fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across most of
the central Caribbean Mon night, pulsing to near gale-force at
night off of Colombia Mon night through Thu night. The building
high pressure will also support fresh to strong winds developing
in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of
Honduras starting Mon evening. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N50W and continues
SW to near 22N65W where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba. A
reinforcing front follows and stretches from 31N56W to the
central Bahamas. Mainly low clouds and isolated showers are
associated with these fronts. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of 27N and E of the main front to about
48W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are noted in the wake of the
reinforcing front with seas also in the 8 to 10 ft range. N of
28N and between fronts, SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are
evident. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the
influence of 1024 mb high pressure located near 29N30W. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow covers the waters N of 20N and E of
the above mentioned main front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
are near the coast of Africa from 10N to 30N due to the pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over E
Africa. Seas are generally 6 to 9 ft within these winds, except
in the lee of the lee of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For
the tropical Atlantic and E of the Lesser Antilles, gentle to
moderate trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist.

For the forecast west of 55W, the main front will weaken as it
moves slowly across the E and SE forecast waters through early
Tue. The reinforcing cold front will move across the area through
Mon night, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of
27N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters
late tonight through Tue night. High pressure will move off the
Carolina coasts Mon, and drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night,
then shift E Thu. The associated ridge will support moderate to
fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean
approaches Mon through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed
through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of
Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and increase to strong to
near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching
cold front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula
Thu night and reach the NW Bahamas Fri morning.

$$
GR
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