[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Conakry, Guinea then
extends southwestward to 07N17W. An ITCZ reaches west-
southwestward from 04N15W through 00S37W to near Belem, Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is found up to 100 nm along either
side of the ITCZ. Similar convection is also occurring south of
the trough from 04N to 07N between 11W and 14W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough south and southwest of New Orleans near 28N89W
is triggering widely scattered showers over the northwestern and
north-central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge runs
southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to the Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
evident at the western and central Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche. Gentle E to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail at the
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds over the western and
central Gulf will diminish today. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse at night off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over
most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and become SE to S Tue through
Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is
expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning, and reach from
near Mobile Bay to the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
by Thu morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1025 mb eastern
Atlantic High near 29N31W to near the Lesser Antilles. This
feature is supporting a fair trade-wind pattern across the entire
Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE trade winds
and seas at 5 to 8 ft are seen at the south-central basin and near
the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE trade winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the
Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the
coast of Colombia and northwestern Venezuela tonight. High
pressure will build southeastward across the western Atlantic
early next week, tightening the pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal
coverage across most of the central basin Mon, pulsing to near
gale-force at night off of Colombia Mon night through Wed night.
The building high pressure will also support fresh to strong winds
developing in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in
the Gulf of Honduras starting Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front curves southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N58W to near southeastern Florida. Another cold
front curves southwestward from a 1006 mb low near 34N50W across
31N52W to northeast of Puerto Rico at 23N64W, then continues as a
stationary front to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are present up
to 100 nm northwest of the first cold front between 58W and 68W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 80 nm
northwest of the entire the second cold/stationary front. Convergent
southerly winds east and southeast of this second boundary are
triggering scattered showers from 18N to 31N between 50W and 58W,
and from 19N to 21N between 63W and 68W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

Fresh to strong SE to W to NW winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen
near the two frontal boundaries north of 26N between 48W and 70W.
Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge extending southwestward from a 1025
mb eastern Atlantic High near 29N31W is supporting gentle E to SE
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas north of 20N between 30W and 70W. To the
west, gentle to moderate N to NE winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft in
moderate northerly swell are seen from the southeast Bahamas
northward to 31N west of 70W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE winds and
seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate north of 10N between the Africa coast
and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 30W and
the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 5 to
7 ft seas exist. Light to gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft in moderate
mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the second frontal boundary  will
weaken as it moves across the central and eastern Atlantic waters
through early Tue. The first cold front will move southeastward
across the area today through Mon, accompanied by fresh to strong
W to NW winds N of 27N. Associated large NW swell will build
across the western Atlantic Mon through Tue night. High pressure
will move off the Carolina coasts Mon, then drift southeastward
to near Bermuda by Wed night. The associated ridge will support
moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the
Caribbean approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong
Wed through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of
Florida and north of the Bahamas on Wed, then increase to between
strong and near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an
approaching cold front.

$$

Chan
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