[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
and The Gambia near 13N16W, continuing to 02S31W. The ITCZ extends
from 02S31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between
10W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters while low pressures are noted
over eastern Mexico. This weather patter is leading to fresh to
strong SE winds over the western Gulf, mainly N of 22N and W of
93W. Light to gentle winds are noted over the eastern Gulf while
moderate NE winds prevail in the Yucatan Channel. A weak stationary
front is analyzed from near Tampa Bay, Fl to SE Louisiana. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Some
transverse high clouds are noted over the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure extending over the eastern U.S.
southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will shift northeastward
through the weekend. This will support mostly fresh E to SE winds
over the western and central Gulf through tonight before diminishing
Sun. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off the northern
coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Mon night. Fresh
to strong SE winds will develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon
night, and become SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching
cold front. This next cold front is expected to move into the
western Gulf Wed morning, and reach from near Mobile Bay to the
NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front runs from eastern Cuba to northern
Belize. Isolated showers are related to the front. Gentle to
moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen in the wake of
the front. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to
strong winds over the south- central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail across the remainder of the central Caribbean
while gentle to moderate E to SE winds are observed over the
eastern Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is over parts of Central America and regional waters,
but mainly from western Panama to Nicaragua.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the
coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela at night through Sun night,
then will expand in areal coverage across most of the central
Caribbean Mon through Wed, as high pressure builds SE across the
western Atlantic. Wind will reach near gale-force at night off of
Colombia Mon night through Wed night. Expect strong NE winds to
develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Mon
through Wed, behind a weak cold front that will sweep across the
region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N70W where it becomes a
stationary front to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are along
the frontal boundary north of 26N. Recent satellite scatterometer
data indicate fresh to strong W winds N of 27N and west of the
front to about 72W with seas of 7 to 9 ft based on altimeter data
and buoy observations. Fresh to strong winds are also noted ahead
of the front. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N76W to
Cape Canaveral, FL. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow this second
front with seas of 3 to 5 ft. The remainder of the central and
eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a 1022 mb high pressure
centered near 29N32W. Scatterometer data depicted a light to
moderate anticyclonic flow N of 20N while moderate to locally
fresh trade winds are noted over the tropical Atlantic. An area
of N swell, with seas 8 to 11 ft is noted in the E Atlantic
north of 22N east of 30W. Elsewhere, E of the front, seas are 6
to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from
31N56W to eastern Cuba will weaken as it moves across the E and
SE forecast waters Sun through Mon night. A reinforcing cold
front will quickly move across the area tonight through Sun,
followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. Associated
large NW swell will build across the NE waters Mon through Tue
night. High pressure will move off the Carolina coasts Mon, then
drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night. The associated ridge will
support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and
the Caribbean approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to
strong Wed. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of
Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and increase to strong to
near gale-force Wed night through Thu.

$$
GR
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