[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N15W, continuing to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between
10W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters while low pressures are noted
over eastern Mexico. This weather pattern is leading to fresh to
strong SE winds over the western Gulf. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass noted these winds mainly west of 87W. Light to
gentle winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, while moderate NE
winds prevail in the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the
western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf will shift
northeastward through the weekend. This will support mostly
fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf through
tonight before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
at night off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight
through Mon night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over most
of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and become SE to S Tue through Wed,
ahead of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is
expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning, and reach from
near Mobile Bay to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thu
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The ridge in the Atlantic has moved farther east, allowing for
winds to slightly diminish in the south-central Caribbean.
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates fresh winds near
the coast of Colombia, where seas have subsided to 4 to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the
Caribbean, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to
strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia and NW
Venezuela at night through Sun night. High pressure will build SE
across the western Atlantic early next week, tightening the
pressure gradient across the area. This will result in winds
expanding in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean
Mon, pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia Mon night
through Wed night. The building high pressure will also support
fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south of
Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N63W to the northern Bahamas
and continues across central Florida. Another cold front to the
east extends from 31N56W to the southern Bahamas. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are ahead of the farther east front,
north of 26N and west of 50W, where combined seas are 6 to 8 ft
in westerly swell. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are between
the eastern front and the weak western front, as well as behind
the western front, north of 27N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the
influence of a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 29N32W.
Scatterometer data depicted a light to moderate anticyclonic flow
N of 20N while moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted
over the tropical Atlantic. An area of N swell, with seas 8 to 11
ft is noted in the E Atlantic north of 22N east of 30W. Elsewhere,
E of the front, seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern cold front will weaken
as it moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun
through Mon night. The reinforcing cold front extending from
31N63W to the northern Bahamas will quickly move across the area
tonight through Sun, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds
N of 27N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE
waters Mon through Tue night. High pressure will move off the
Carolina coast Mon, then drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night.
The associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across
the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue
night, becoming fresh to strong Wed. Fresh southerly winds will
develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and
increase to strong to near gale- force Wed night through Thu.

$$
Mora
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