[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061629
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
and The Gambia near 13N16W, continuing to 02S31W. The ITCZ
continues from 02S31W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 06N between 23W and 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, even as a weak
cold front moves through the NE waters. The cold front currently
extends from Tampa Bay, FL to New Orleans, LA, and is followed by
gentle to moderate NE to E winds. Across the rest of the waters,
gentle to moderate SE winds prevail. Seas 4-6 ft in the W Gulf
have been confirmed by buoy observations this morning. Elsewhere,
seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will
shift northeastward and inland through the weekend. This will
support mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central
Gulf through tonight before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula
tonight and Sun night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over
most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and become SE to S through Wed,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect this next cold front to
move into the western Gulf on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the Central Caribbean,
increasing to locally strong speeds near the coast of Colombia in
the south-central Caribbean. As a result of these winds, seas are
6-8 ft across the south-central waters. In the SW and E
Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with seas of 4-6 ft. In
the NW Caribbean, winds are light with 2-4 ft seas. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 12N
west of 80W. A dissipating stationary front in the NW Caribbean
may produce some brief showers.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the
coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela at night through Sun night,
then will expand in areal coverage across most of the central
Caribbean Mon through Wed, as high pressure builds across the
western Atlantic. Wind will reach near gale-force at night off of
Colombia Mon night through Wed night. Expect strong NE winds to
develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Mon
through Wed, behind a dying cold front that will sweep across the
region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to the Turks and Caicos, where a
stationary front continues to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are
along the front north of 26N. Recent satellite scatterometer data
indicates moderate to fresh W winds west of the frontal boundary
north of 27N. Seas are 8-9 ft north of 27N between 52W and 73W. A
weak cold front extends from 31N76W to Cape Canaveral, FL.
Moderate NW winds follow the front. Remaining tropical Atlantic
waters are dominated by 1022 mb high pressures centered near
28N43W and 30N35W. Satellite scatterometer from earlier this
morning depicted gentle to moderate winds across the basin. An
area of N swell with seas 8-11 ft is noted in the E Atlantic north
of 22N east of 40W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front extending from 31N58W to
eastern Cuba will weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast
waters Sun through Mon. A reinforcing cold front will quickly move
across the area from late tonight through Sun, followed by fresh
to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. Associated large NW swell will
build across the NE waters Mon night through Tue night. High
pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina Mon, with the
associated ridge expected to support moderate to fresh winds
across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through
Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed.

$$
Mahoney
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