[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from
31N76W to South Florida will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba
by this evening, from near 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri
evening, then across the E and SE forecast waters through Mon.
Ongoing gale-force southerly winds E of the front north of 30N
between 74W and 77W will diminish late this morning. Strong to
near gale-force winds elsewhere E of the front N of about 27N will
diminish tonight while fresh to strong west winds will follow the
front N of 29N. Rough seas on either side of the front N of 27N
will shift to E of 70W during the upcoming weekend and into early
next week. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are ahead of
the front over the waters NE of Freeport. This activity will
continue to shift eastward through today.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 04N20W to
00N24W. The ITCZ extends from 00N24W to 0N35W to 00N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05S to 06N between 00W to 30W
and W of 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Naples, Florida SW to the NE Yucatan
Peninsula. A line of showers and thunderstorms prevails ahead of
the frontal boundary affecting the Florida Keys and South Florida.
Moderate to fresh N to NW winds follows the front and cover the
eastern half of the basin along with 5-7 ft seas. Weak high
pressure and its associated ridge covers the waters W of 90W,
supporting light to gentle variable winds and 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE of
the Gulf later this morning. Scattered showers and tstms will
continue to affect the Straits of Florida through this morning.
Winds and seas will decrease today through Fri as high pressure
builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift
eastward through the end of the week allowing for mostly fresh E
to SE winds to develop over the western and central Gulf through
Sat night, then diminish Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds then
develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastward-advancing cold front in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
forcing the subtropical ridge north of the area to retreat into
the central Atlantic, leading to a weaker pressure gradient across
the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are
prevalent over the central and eastern basin, except for weaker
breezes in the Windward Passage and SW Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft
are present across the Caribbean, highest seas in the south-
central basin.

For the forecast, the tail of the cold front will move into the
NW Caribbean later this morning, reach from central Cuba SW to the
vicinity of northern Belize by this evening, then stall and
weaken from near the Windward Passage to near 18N85W by Fri night.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind the front
affecting mainly the Yucatan Channel and Belize adjacent waters
through early Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the
coast of Colombia at night through the forecast period, however
increasing in areal coverage and reaching near gale-force speeds
Mon night as high pressure builds N of the area in the wake of the
front. Surface high pressure N of the area will also support the
development of fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage
Sun evening through early Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the waters NE of the northern Bahamas.

Outside of the area discussed in the Special Features section,
a broad ridge dominates the subtropical Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between a stationary boundary along 30N in the NE
subtropical waters and the aforementioned subtropical ridge
results in fresh to locally strong westerly winds north of 28N
and between 32W and 48W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with
the highest seas occurring near 30N344. Otherwise, fresh N winds
continue to affect the region between the Cape Verde Islands and
the W coast of Africa where peak seas are 8-9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the strong cold front will reach
from Bermuda to central Cuba by this evening, from near 31N62W to
the Turks and Caicos Fri evening, then across the E and SE
forecast waters through Mon. Ongoing gale-force southerly winds E
of the front north of 30N between 74W and 77W will diminish late
this morning. Strong to near gale-force winds elsewhere E of the
front N of about 27N will diminish tonight while fresh to strong
west winds will follow the front N of 29N. Rough seas on either
side of the front N of 27N will shift to E of 70W during the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Scattered heavy showers
and thunderstorms are ahead of the front over the waters NE of
Freeport. This activity will continue to shift eastward through
today. A reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area
from late Fri night through the upcoming weekend, followed by
fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High pressure will develop
off the coast of Georgia on Mon and associated ridging will
support moderate to fresh winds in the Great Bahama Bank and the
Caribbean approaches.

$$
Ramos
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