[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved off
the SE US coast, now extending from South Carolina to NE Florida.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of
the boundary, especially west of 75W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass and surface observations show strong to gale-force
SW-W winds north of 27N and west of 67W. Seas in these waters are
8-12 ft. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas
and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N68W to the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba Thu evening, then across the eastern
forecast waters through late Sat night. Ongoing gale-force
southerly winds E of the front north of 30N between 74W and 77W
will diminish late tonight. Strong to near gale-force winds
elsewhere E of the front N of about 27N will diminish Thu night
while fresh to strong west winds will follow the front N of 29N.
Rough seas on either side of the front N of 27N will shift to E
of 70W during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
The showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to shift
eastward through Thu.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 00N25W.
The ITCZ extends from 00N25W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and east of
25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from western Florida to northern Yucatan. A
line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is seen ahead of the
frontal boundary in the SE Gulf. The remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico is under the influence of a weak high pressure system
positioned over northern Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass and surface observations indicate that fresh to strong NW
winds are present north of 27N and east of 90W. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are seas of 3-5 ft
are present in the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere behind the front,
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
occurring east of 94W. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE of
the Gulf early on Thu. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds follow the
front, except for locally strong NW winds in the far NE basin. A
squall line ahead of the front will continue to bring heavy
showers and tstms to the far SE basin through Thu morning,
including the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida. Winds and
seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the
wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through
the end of the week allowing for mostly fresh E to SE winds to
develop over the western and central Gulf through Sat night, then
diminish Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds then develop over most of
Gulf Mon and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastward-advancing cold front in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
forcing the subtropical ridge north of the area to retreat into
the central Atlantic, leading to a weaker pressure gradient across
the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are
prevalent over much of the basin, except for weaker breezes in the
Windward Passage and SW Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft are present
across the Caribbean. A few pockets of low-level moisture dot the
Caribbean waters, resulting in isolated showers. However, no deep
convection is seen on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, the tail of a cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean Thu morning, reach from central Cuba SW to the vicinity
of northern Belize by Thu evening, then stall and weaken from
near the Windward Passage to near 18N85W by Fri night. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind the front affecting
mainly the Yucatan Channel and Belize adjacent waters through
early Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of
Colombia at night through the forecast period, however increasing
in areal coverage and reaching near gale-force speeds Mon night
as high pressure builds N of the area in the wake of the front.
Surface high pressure N of the area will also support the
development of fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage
Sun evening through early Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the waters off NE Florida.

Outside of the area discussed in the Special Features section,
a broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between a cold front along 30N in the north-
central Atlantic and the aforementioned subtropical ridge result
in fresh to locally strong westerly winds north of 28N and between
30W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the highest
seas occurring near 30N36W.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft
are noted south of 19N and west of 35W. Farther east, a tighter
pressure gradient is producing fresh to strong northerly winds
east of 28W and from 12N and 26N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front coming off the
coasts of Georgia and NE Florida will enter the far NW waters
tonight. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by Thu
evening, from near 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri evening,
then across the E and SE forecast waters through Mon. Ongoing
gale-force southerly winds E of the front north of 30N between 74W
and 77W will diminish late tonight. Strong to near gale-force
winds elsewhere E of the front N of about 27N will diminish Thu
night while fresh to strong west winds will follow the front N of
29N. Rough seas on either side of the front N of 27N will shift to
E of 70W during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front are over the
waters N of 27N and W of 75W. This activity will continue to
shift eastward through Thu. A reinforcing cold front will quickly
move across the area from late Fri night through the upcoming
weekend, followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds N of
27N. High pressure will develop off the coast of Georgia on Mon
and associated ridging will support moderate to fresh winds in the
Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches.

$$
Delgado
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