[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A strong cold front just inland the Georgia and northeast Florida
coasts will enter the far northwest waters this evening. It will
reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early
Thu, from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba
Thu evening, then across the eastern forecast waters through late
Sat night. Gale-force southerly winds E of the front north of 30N
between 74W and 77W will diminish late tonight. Seas will build to
a peak of around 12 ft tonight and early Thu.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to the Equator and 40W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted south
of 04N east of 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a strong - for April - cold front extends from
the Big Bend area of Florida near 30N83W southwestward to the
Yucatan coast near 21N90W. A squall line extends from the Florida
peninsula at 27N82W to 25N86W. Winds outside of the vicinity of
the squall line ahead of the front are SW moderate to fresh with
seas 3-5 ft. Winds behind the front are N fresh to strong south of
25N with seas 7-10 ft and NW moderate to fresh north of 25N with
seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the front will reach from South Florida to the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula this evening and to just southeast of
the Gulf early on Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the
front while fresh to strong southerly winds will precede it.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will precede the front along a
squall line. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure will
shift eastward through the end of the week allowing for mostly
fresh east to southeast winds to develop over the western and
central Gulf through Sat night, then diminish Sun. Fresh to strong
southeast winds then develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak Bermuda High to the north of the Caribbean is forcing only
gentle to moderate E trades east of 77W. Winds are SE moderate to
fresh in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Caribbean.
No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon.

For the forecast, mostly strong, to at times, near gale-force
northeast winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia at night
through Sun night. The tail of a cold front will move into the
northwestern Caribbean Thu morning, reach from central Cuba
southwestward to the vicinity of northern Belize by Thu evening,
then stall and weaken from near the Windward Passage to near
18N85W by Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow
in behind the front through Thu evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning that has started.

Aside from the SW gale east of N Florida, the most significant
weather is associated with a cold front that extends from 31N40W
to 29N50W to 31N53W. Winds are WSW fresh to strong east of the
front north of 29N. Very large NW swell is occurring in
connection with this front with peak seas of 14 ft near 31N40W and
8 ft or greater seas north of 27N between 30W-57W. No significant
convection is occurring in association with the front. To the
southeast, a long trough extends from 30N29W to 14N59W. While no
notable winds are associated with the trough, scattered showers
are occurring within 60 NM of the trough north of 20N. Elsewhere,
the Atlantic is dominated by a 1018 mb high centered hear 24N53W
with ridging extending westward to 25N77W and eastward to 24N40W.
Within 180 NM of the West African coast north of 15N, winds are N
to NE fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft. Winds over the remainder
of the Atlantic gentle to moderate with seas 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front just inland the
Georgia and northeast Florida coasts will enter the far northwest
waters this evening. It will reach from near 31N73W to the NW
Bahamas and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N68W to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba Thu evening, then across the
eastern forecast waters through late Sat night. Gale-force
southerly winds E of the front north of 30N between 74W and 77W
will diminish late tonight. Strong to near gale-force winds
elsewhere E of the front N of about 27N will diminish Thu night
while fresh to strong west winds will follow the front N of 29N.
Rough seas on either side of the front N of 27N will shift to E of
70W during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front are over the
waters N of 27N and W of 75W. This activity will continue to
shift eastward through Thu. Another cold front will quickly move
across the area from late Fri night through the upcoming weekend,
followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds N of 27N.

$$
Landsea/Aguirre
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