[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, curving to 04N19W and the Equator along 29W. The ITCZ
continues from the Equator along 29W, to the Equator along 46W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 05N southward between 05W and 17W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
NW Bahamas, through the Florida Keys, through the Yucatan Channel
and northern Guatemala, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. A stationary front continues from southern Mexico to
25N102W. Some remnant clouds are to the south of 29N83W 26N90W
23N98W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, to the
west of the cold front. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near the
coast of Mexico near 24N97W.

Moderate to rough seas cover the area from the NE corner toward
the SW corner. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the area.
An exception is for slight seas off the middle Texas Gulf coast.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is in the eastern half of
the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.

A cold front extending from the Florida Keys to the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula will move SE of the Gulf this afternoon.
Moderate to fresh N to NW winds follow the front, except for
locally strong NW winds in the NE basin. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to affect the Straits of Florida
through early afternoon. Winds and seas will decrease tonight
through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The
high pressure will shift eastward through the end of the week,
allowing for mostly fresh E to SE winds to develop over the
western and central Gulf through Sat night, then diminish Sun.
Fresh to strong SE winds then develop over most of Gulf Mon and
Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Florida Keys, through the Yucatan
Channel and northern Guatemala, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm to the east of the
front, from 17N northward from 80W westward. Moderate to fresh SE
to S winds are to the southeast of the front. Fresh NW winds are
to the north and northwest of the cold front. Moderate seas cover
much of the area in the open waters of the Caribbean Sea. An
exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters areas of
from NW Colombia to Central America, and for Cuba along 80W.

A surface ridge passes through a 1020 mb Atlantic Ocean 24N51W high
pressure center, to 21N73W between the SE Bahamas and Haiti.

A late season cold front is moving across the Yucatan Channel and
into the NW Caribbean this morning, and is expected to reach from
central Cuba SW to the vicinity of northern Belize by this
evening, then stall and weaken from near the Windward Passage to
near 18N85W by Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
follow in behind the front affecting mainly the waters from the
Yucatan Channel to Belize adjacent waters through early Fri. Fresh
to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia at night
through the forecast period, increasing in areal coverage and
reaching near gale-force speeds Mon night as high pressure builds
N of the area in the wake of the front. Surface high pressure N of
the area will also support the development of fresh to strong NE
winds in the Windward Passage Sun evening through early Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
NW Bahamas, through the Florida Keys, through the Yucatan Channel
and northern Guatemala, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Earlier gale-force winds that were associated with this
front during the last 24 hours or so have slowed down to less than
gale-force. Moderate to rough seas are from the cold front
northward and northwestward. Slight seas are between 70W and the
cold front. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are to the
north of 31N63W 27N69W 25N74W, to the east of the cold front.
Fresh to strong, and some near gale-force NW winds are from 29N
northward to the northwest of the cold front. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to
180 nm to the east of the entire front. The 24-hour rainfall
totals in inches, for the period that ended at 04/1200 UTC, are:
0.18 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A surface ridge passes through 31N16W, to a 1018 mb high pressure
center that is near 27N22W, to 24N37W, to a 1020 mb high pressure
center is near 24N51W, to 21N73W between the SE Bahamas and
Haiti. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from the 31N73W-to-Florida Keys cold front eastward. A
frontal boundary is along 32N between 40W and 60W. Strong to near
gale-force SW to W winds are from 29N northward between 35W and
49W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are from 25N to 29N between
35W and 49W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 26N northward between 27W and
40W. Moderate to rough seas are from 17N to 27N from 26W eastward.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N southward between 30W and
60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere between 60W
and 73W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 15N to 26N from 26W
eastward. Fresh SW winds are from 28N northward between 20W and
35W.

A cold front extending from 31N73W to the Florida Keys will reach
from Bermuda to central Cuba by this evening, from near 31N62W to
the Turks and Caicos Fri evening, then across the E and SE
forecast waters through Mon. Winds to near gale-force will
continue on both sides of the front north of 30N before
diminishing early this afternoon. Strong winds and rough seas on
either side of the front N of 27N will gradually diminish during
the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Scattered heavy
showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front over the waters
NE of Freeport and will continue to shift eastward today. A
reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late
Fri night through the upcoming weekend, followed by fresh to
strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High pressure will develop off the
coast of Georgia on Mon and associated ridging will support
moderate to fresh winds in the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean
approaches.

$$
mt/ss
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