[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022214
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Sabine
Pass, Louisiana to 1007 mb low pressure centered near 28N95W near
Tampico, Mexico. The front will reach from near Apalachicola, FL
to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Wed. Behind the front, gale
force NW winds are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico beginning
late tonight and ending early Wed morning. Seas will build to 10
ft in the area of these winds by early Wed morning. As the cold
front exits the basin, marine conditions will improve in the SW
Gulf Wed night.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast Wed afternoon and reach from near 31N72W
to the NW Bahamas early Thu. In advance of the front, gale force S
to SW winds are expected Wed afternoon through Wed evening N of
30N between 75W and 80W with seas to 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southward to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N15W to 01S21W to 02S32W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 02N between 20W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Sabine Pass, Louisiana to 1007 mb
low pressure centered near 28N95W near Tampico, Mexico. A surface
trough extends from 25N95W to 1006 mb low pressure near 21N96W to
23N97W to 18N94W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas follow
the front off the coast of the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico.
Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are evident ahead of the front
over the remainder of the Gulf, except for fresh to strong SE
winds near the Yucatan Channel. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft east
of the front

For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the
Atlantic across the region will continue to shift eastward tonight
as the late season cold front moves across the western Gulf. The
front will reach from the near Apalachicola to the eastern Bay of
Campeche early Wed, from South Florida to the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula Wed evening and to just southeast of the Gulf early Thu.
Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale force
offshore Veracruz late tonight into early Wed. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly
severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and seas will
decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of
the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through the end
of the week allowing for fresh to strong east to southeast winds
to develop over the western and central Gulf through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The basin is dominated by a 1020 mb high pressure system centered
between Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressure along the
north coast of Colombia supports moderate to fresh trades across
most of the basin, except for strong near the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across much of the
Caribbean, except 6 to 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6 to
7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 2 to 5 ft between Jamaica and
Cuba.

For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure north of the
region and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will allow for
strong to near gale force northeast winds off the coast of
Colombia through early Wed. These winds will resume pulsing
starting Wed night, but become more steady beginning Fri and
through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters north of 20N,
anchored by two 1020 mb high pressure areas near 25N25W and
25N62W, split by a weakening stationary front reaching from near
Madeira Island to 16N50W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough
seas are evident between the ridge and an approaching cold front
moving through Bermuda, specifically north of 29N between 35W and
65W. Fresh E winds are funneling along the north coast of
Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds are evident elsewhere, with 4
to 6 ft combined seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
shift eastward through tonight as a strong cold front approaches
from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida
coast Wed afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and
to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu
evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late
Sat. Gale force southerly are expected ahead of the front north of
30N Wed and Wed night. Increasing winds and building seas are
expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of 26N through
Thu evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to
isolated severe possibly in a line, are expected to precede the
front. A couple of cold fronts will sweep across the northern
waters Fri through Sun

$$
Christensen
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