[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030429
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends
from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale-
force northerly winds are present behind the front, along with
seas of 5-8 ft. The front will reach from the near Apalachicola to
the eastern Bay of Campeche early Wed, from South Florida to the
NE Yucatan Peninsula Wed evening and to just SE of the Gulf early
Thu. Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale-
force offshore Veracruz late tonight into early Wed. Seas will
build to 10 ft in the area of these winds by early Wed morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly
severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and seas will
decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of
the front.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the northeast Florida coast Wed afternoon, reach from near 31N72W
to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W
to central Cuba Thu evening, then across the eastern part of the
area through late Sat. Gale-force southerly winds are expected
ahead of the front north of 30N Wed and Wed night. Seas will be
building to near 12 ft Wed evening. Increasing winds and building
seas are expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of
26N through Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to
isolated severe, are expected to precede the front. Conditions
will improve Fri into Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic waters through the coast
of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southward to 03N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N16W to 02S27W and to 03S39W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 03N and between 08W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico. The strong pressure gradient behind the front is
discussed in the Special Features section. Ahead of the front, the
pressure gradient between the aforementioned cold front and a 1020
mb high pressure system in the western Atlantic result in moderate
to fresh southerly winds. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, a late season cold front is across the western Gulf,
extending from SE Louisiana SW to just N of Veracruz, Mexico. The
front will reach from the near Apalachicola to the eastern Bay of
Campeche early Wed, from South Florida to the NE Yucatan
Peninsula Wed evening and to just SE of the Gulf early Thu.
Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale-force
offshore Veracruz late tonight into early Wed. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly
severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and seas will
decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of
the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through the end
of the week allowing for fresh to strong E to SE winds to develop
over the western and central Gulf through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to
extend its influence over the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient
between this 1020 mb high pressure system and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in strong to locally near gale-force
easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft cover much of the remainder of
the basin. However, light to gentle winds and slight seas are
found in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and SW Caribbean
waters.

For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure north of the
region and relatively lower pressure in NW Colombia will allow
for strong to near gale-force NE winds off the coast of Colombia
through early Wed morning. These winds will then pulse to strong
speeds at night starting Wed night and continuing through Sun
night. Fresh to near gale-force E to SE winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will diminish to fresh speeds late Wed morning. The tail
of a cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Thu morning and
extend from central Cuba SW to the northern Belize adjacent
waters by Thu evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect off NE Florida.

Broad subtropical ridging dominates the tropical Atlantic. Fresh
to strong southerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found north of
25N and west of 75W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show
fresh to near gale-force westerly breezes occurring north of 27N
and between 35W and 60W due to a strong cold front located north
of our area. Seas in the area described are 8-12 ft. Farther
east, a stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N18W
and continues southwestward to 27N31W, becoming a surface trough
to 15N52W.

Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present
west of 25W and between 10N and 25N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
shift eastward through tonight as a strong cold front approaches
from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida
coast Wed afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and
to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu
evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late
Sat. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front
north of 30N Wed and Wed night. Increasing winds and building seas
are expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of 26N
through Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to
isolated severe, are expected to precede the front. Otherwise, a
couple of cold fronts will sweep across the northern waters Fri
through Sun night, followed by fresh to strong west to northwest
winds.

$$
Delgado
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