[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021630
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from High
Island, TX to South Padre Island, TX. The front will reach from
near Apalachicola, FL to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Wed.
Behind the front, gale force NW winds are expected offshore
Veracruz, Mexico beginning late tonight and ending early Wed
morning. Seas will build to 10 ft in the area of these winds by
early Wed morning. As the cold front exits the basin, marine
conditions will improve in the SW Gulf Wed night.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast Wed afternoon and reach from near 31N72W
to the NW Bahamas early Thu. In advance of the front, gale force S
to SW winds are expected Wed afternoon through Wed evening N of
30N between 75W and 80W with seas to 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southward to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N16W to 01S21W to 02S32W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 04N and east of 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from High Island, TX to South Padre Island,
TX. A surface trough extends from 29N91W to 1005 mb low pressure
near 27N95.5W to 23N97W to 18N94W. Fresh N winds have moved in
behind the front along the coast of Texas. From the SE Gulf to the
central Gulf, fresh to locally strong SSE winds are occurring.
Gentle winds are present in between the surface trough and front.
Seas are 4 to 8 ft across the basin west of 85W. East of 85W,
seas are 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the
Atlantic across the region will continue to shift eastward today
as a late season cold front moves across the western Gulf. The
front will reach from the near Apalachicola to the eastern Bay of
Campeche early Wed, from South Florida to the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula Wed evening and to just southeast of the Gulf early Thu.
Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale force
offshore Veracruz late tonight into early Wed. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly
severe, may impact the north-central Gulf late tonight and the
eastern Gulf Wed. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure
will shift eastward through the end of the week allowing for fresh
to strong east to southeast winds to develop over the western and
central Gulf through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The basin is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure system centered
between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The pressure gradient between
the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures along the N coast of
Colombia supports moderate to fresh trades across most of the
basin, except for strong near the coast of Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across much of the Caribbean,
except 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6 to 7 ft in the
Gulf of Honduras, and 2 to 5 ft between Jamaica and Cuba.

For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure north of the
region and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will allow for
strong to near gale force northeast winds off the coast of
Colombia through early Wed. These winds will resume pulsing
starting Wed night, but become more steady beginning Fri and
through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic is dominated by ridging, anchored by a 1021
mb high pressure centered near 26N65W. The ridge axis extends from
Ft. Pierce, FL to the high pressure center to 25N50W to 27N35W to
31N22W. Light to gentle anti-cyclonic winds are near the ridge
axis. A cold front extends from 31N20N to 29N26W, then stationary
front to 25N38W. A surface trough continues SW to 16N48W. A 1021
mb high pressure is centered near 25N25W.

Winds are moderate or weaker across most of the basin. Fresh SW
to W winds are found north of 29N between 35W and 65W, with strong
winds north of 30N between 52W and 61W. Fresh N to NE winds are
also found in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of
Africa. Seas are 8 to 10 ft north of 26N between 30W and 60W. Seas
are less than 8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
shift eastward through tonight as a strong cold front approaches
from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida
coast Wed afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and
to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu
evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late
Sat. A gale warning is in effect for southerly winds increasing to
gale force ahead of the front north of 30N on Wed and Wed night.
Increasing winds and building seas are expected elsewhere ahead
and behind the front north of 26N through Thu evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe possibly
in a line, are expected to precede the front. Another cold front
will sweep across the northern waters Fri through Sat night,
followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds.

$$
Hagen
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