[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020916
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:  A cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico this morning and extend from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed morning. Gale force NW winds
associated with the front are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico
beginning tonight and ending Wed afternoon. Seas will build 8 to
10 ft in the area of these winds by Wed morning. As the cold front
exits the basin, marine conditions will improve in the SW Gulf
Wed night.

Mariners should monitor the hazardous marine conditions and adjust
their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W and continues southward to 02N15W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N15W to 02S29W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 03N and between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft and southerly winds result in plenty of
cloudiness and a few showers affecting the NW Gulf waters. The
pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure system in the
western Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico result in
fresh to strong SE-S winds west of 87W. Seas in these waters are
5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail east of 87W. The combination of dense fog due to
persistent southerly flow and smoke from agricultural fires is
lowering visibility over much of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging from the Atlantic that extends
westward across the region will continue to shift eastward
today as a cold front moves across eastern Texas. The front will
enter the western Gulf later this morning, reach from the Florida
panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, then move southeast of the
area into Thu. Northerly winds behind the front are expected to
reach gale force offshore Veracruz tonight into Wed. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the
front. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure will
shift eastward through the end of the week allowing for fresh to
strong east to southeast winds to develop over the western and
central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The basin is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure system centered
between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The pressure gradient between
the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW South America
supports strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean. These winds support seas of 8-11 ft.
Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft are present in
the north-central and northwest Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh northeast winds in the Windward Passage and off
the southern coast of Hispaniola through this morning. Pulsing strong
to near gale NE winds will continue producing rough seas off the
coast of Colombia through Wed morning. Winds will diminish and
seas will subside across the basin on Wed as the high pressure
shifts eastward well away from the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N23W and
continues southwestward to 26N33W, where it becomes a stationary
to 20N44W, followed by a surface trough to 15N47W. The rest of
the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure in
the western Atlantic and a 1021 mb high pressure in the eastern
Atlantic near 26N66W.

The pressure gradient between the western Atlantic ridge and lower
pressures in the mid-latitudes sustain moderate to fresh westerly
winds north of 29N. Light to moderate winds are noted S of 29N. An
area of fresh winds prevails from 10N to 26N and E of 29N. Rough
seas prevail N of 25N between 34W-54W, while slight to moderate
seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will shift
eastward tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
The cold front will move off the coast of Florida Wed, reach from
near Bermuda to western Cuba Thu, from near 31N65W to east-
central Cuba early Fri and from near 31N62W to Hispaniola by late
Sat. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead and
behind the front, mainly N of 25N. Brief gusts to gale force are
possible ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. There is a possibility of some of this activity
being strong to severe. High pressure will settle in over the
area in the wake of the front.

$$
ERA
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