[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020415
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:  A cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico Tue morning and extend from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed morning. Gale force NW winds
associated with the front are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico
beginning Tue night and ending Wed morning. Seas will build 8 to
10 ft in the area of these winds by Wed morning. As the cold
front exits the basin, marine conditions will improve in the SW
Gulf Wed night.

Mariners should monitor the hazardous marine conditions and adjust
their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W and continues southward to 04N14W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N14W to 02S26W and to 04S38W. Isolated to scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 03N and between 08W and
33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft and southerly winds result in plenty of
cloudiness and a few showers affecting the NW Gulf waters. The
pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure system in the
western Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico result in
fresh to locally strong SE-S winds west of 87W. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail east of 87W. The combination of dense fog due to
persistent southerly flow and smoke from agricultural fires is
lowering visibility over much of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging from the Atlantic that extends
westward across the region will shift eastward tonight as a cold
front moves across eastern Texas. The front will enter the western
Gulf Tue morning, reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche Wed, then move southeast of the area into Thu. Northerly
winds behind the front are expected to reach gale force offshore
Veracruz late Tue night into early Wed. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. Winds and
seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the
wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through
Sat night allowing for fresh to strong east to southeast winds to
develop over the western and central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pockets of low-level moisture in the central and western Caribbean
result in isolated showers. The Caribbean Sea is dominated by a
1022 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto
Rico. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and
lower pressures in NW South America supports strong to near gale-
force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. These
winds support seas of 7-11 ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes
and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the north-central and northwest
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward
Passage and off the southern coast of Hispaniola through Tue.
Strong trade winds producing seas will pulse off the coast of
Colombia through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will subside
starting Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward well away from
the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W and
continues southwestward to 26N33W, where it becomes a stationary
front to 20N44W, followed by a surface trough to 16N47W. A few
showers are seen near these boundaries. The rest of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure in the western
Atlantic and a 1021 mb high pressure in the eastern Atlantic.

The pressure gradient between the western Atlantic ridge and lower
pressures in the mid-latitudes sustain moderate to fresh westerly
winds north of 29N and east of 33W. Seas in these waters are 6-9
ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are occurring
south of 22N and west of 35W. Seas in the area described are 5-8
ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of
5-8 ft are noted east of 25W and between 10N and 25N. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
shift eastward late Tue as a strong cold front approaches from
the W. The cold front will move off the coast of Florida Wed,
reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Thu, from near 31N65W to
east-central Cuba early Fri and from near 31N62W to Hispaniola by
late Sat. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead
and behind this front, mainly N of 25N. Brief gusts to gale force
are possible ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. There is a
possibility of some of this activity being strong to severe. High
pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the front.

$$
Delgado
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