[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012249
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:  A cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico Tue morning and extend from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed morning. Gale force NW winds
associated with the front are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico
beginning Tue night and ending Wed morning. Seas will build 8 to
10 ft in the area of these winds by Wed morning. As the cold
front exits the basin, marine conditions will improve in the SW
Gulf Wed night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 07N14W to 00N20W to 00S25W. Scattered moderate
convection associated with this trough is from 00S to 03N between
25W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and
Hispaniola extends a ridge to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico supports
fresh S winds across the western Gulf, and a pulse of strong E
winds just off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in
the western Gulf are 4 to 6 ft. Over the eastern basin, moderate
winds or less and slight seas continue. The combination of dense
fog due to persistent southerly flow and smoke from agricultural
fires is lowering visibility over much of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will begin to shift eastward
tonight as a cold front moves across eastern Texas. The front will
enter the western Gulf Tue morning, reach from the Florida
panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, then move southeast of the
area late Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. Winds and seas will
decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of
the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through sat night
allowing for fresh to strong east to southeast winds to develop
over the western and central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The basin is influenced by a 1023 mb high pressure system
centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW South
America supports strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean. These winds support seas of 7 to 10
ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 4 to 7 ft are
found in the north-central and northwest Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola. Moderate winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage
and off the southern coast of Hispaniola through Tue. Strong
trade winds producing seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia
through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will subside starting
Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward well away from the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and
Hispaniola dominates the SW Atlantic. To the east, a cold front
extends from 31N27W to 21N42W. No significant convection is
associated with this boundary. Fresh southerly winds are evident
north of 27N and east of the cold front to 20W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft
in NW swell remain behind the cold front, north of 20N between
40W and 60W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in northerly swell are also ahead
of the front north of 20N and mostly east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
begin to shift eastward late Tue as a strong cold front approaches
from the W. The cold front will move off the coast of Florida
Wed, reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Thu, from near 31N65W
to east- central Cuba early Fri and from near 31N62W to
Hispaniola by late Sat. Increasing winds and building seas will be
both ahead and behind this front, mainly N of 25N. Brief gusts to
gale force are possible ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. There
is a possibility of some of this activity being strong to severe.
High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the
front.

$$
Konarik
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