[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Wakefield VA  AL162023
550 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Accomack, Camden, Eastern Currituck, Gloucester,
      Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster,
      Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth,
      Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Suffolk, Surry, Virginia
      Beach, Western Currituck, and York
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Bertie, Chowan, Northumberland, and Westmoreland
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chesapeake,
      Dorchester, Gates, Hertford, Inland Worcester, Maryland
      Beaches, Richmond, Somerset, and Wicomico

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 540 miles south of Ocean City MD or about 450 miles south
      of Norfolk VA
    - 30.5N 75.0W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen continues to strengthen off the
southeast coast this morning, and will move northward toward the mid-Atlantic
region through Saturday, possibly briefly becoming a tropical storm
before making landfall across the coastal Carolinas early Saturday.

Regardless of the exact track, the storm is expected to bring a myriad
of hazards to our area. These impacts include:

* Dangerous marine and high surf - Dangerous marine conditions are
expected late tonight into Saturday due to the strong winds and high
seas. Seas build to 11 to 16 feet late tonight into Saturday and
remain elevated into Sunday. Large breaking waves of 3 to 5 ft will
result in dangerous surf conditions and a high risk for rip currents.

* Heavy Rain - heavy downpours could cause localized minor flooding of
roads and low-lying areas, especially across northeast north Carolina,
eastern and central Virginia, and the lower eastern shore of Maryland
and Virginia.

* Winds - Tropical Storm force wind is expected to arrive this evening
into early Saturday and could lead to downed trees and scattered power
outages.

* Coastal Flooding - Areas of moderate to major coastal flooding are
possible during high tide late tonight into Saturday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs
      will sustain damage.
    - A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving
      conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia and coastal
portions of the lower eastern shore. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of
      numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and
      property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the
      waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and
      isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result
      in additional damage near the shoreline.
    - Numerous roads flooded or washed out.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes.
    - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
      expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected marinas and docks.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential
impacts include:
    - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and rescues
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with swift
      currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams, creeks, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken
      foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures are expected.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across Northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Potential impacts
include:
    - Some tornadoes are expected, some of which could be intense. As
      a result, execution of emergency plans could be hindered in
      affected areas.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage, with a few areas
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles
      tumbled, and small boats tossed about.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across eastern Virginia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can
be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see www.readyvirginia.gov,
  readync.org or mema.maryland.gov

- For the latest weather and storm information go to weather.gov/wakefield

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA around NOON EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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