[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS81 KLWX 221520
HLSLWX
DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ053>055-057-527-222330-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC  AL162023
1120 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern
and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia

**Conditions Begin To Deteriorate Tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions Expected
over Southern Maryland Tonight through Early Sunday.**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 460 miles south of Washington DC or about 490 miles south
      of Baltimore MD
    - 32.3N 75.6W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move north-northwest toward
the North Carolina coast today before moving northward across the
Mid-Atlantic Saturday through Sunday.

Storm surge is expected to be the main threat from PTC 16 to our area,
especially along the Western Shore and Tidal Potomac where inundation
of 1 to 3 feet is expected. In particular, St. Mary's County could see
significant impacts from surge where 2 to 3 feet of inundation is
likely. The highest water levels will be around high tides Saturday
through Saturday night.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with
localized amounts up to 5 inches possible. This may result in isolated
instances of flooding, especially for low lying and flood prone areas.
The heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday
night.

Tropical Storm force wind gusts, likely between 50 to 60 mph, are
expected over southern Maryland and the nearby waters south of North
Beach along the Chesapeake Bay, and south of Cobb Island along the
Tidal Potomac River. Additionally, strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
are expected along the waters father north along the Chesapeake Bay as
well as the Tidal Potomac River up to Washington, DC.

Winds are expected to begin increasing late tonight, with the
strongest winds from Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Gusty
winds and a saturated ground may cause downed trees and power outages,
especially along the immediate western shoreline of Maryland.

While the severe weather threat is low, a brief tornado or two cannot
out be ruled across southern Maryland on Saturday afternoon and
evening.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the Western Shore of the Chesapeake Bay, and Tidal
Potomac River. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Southern Maryland. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts east of Interstate 95. Potential impacts include:
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across far southern Maryland. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland,
Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia, little
to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 6 PM EDT this evening,
or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$

KR
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