[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 18W, from 03N to 13N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the
monsoon trough, is from 04N to 12N between 15W and 26W.

A tropical wave is along 45W, from 06N to 17N, moving west at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

Based on Upper Air Sounding Data, visible satellite, and model
diagnostics, the Caribbean tropical wave is relocated slightly
east of earlier positions to near 68W. The wave extends from 18N
southward over northern Venezuela. The westward motion is
estimated to be 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
11N to 14N between 68W and 71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues from 10N48W to 10N62W. Outside of
the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 10N to 13N
between 30W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A strong, reinforcing cold front extends
from Cedar Key, Florida to Padre Island, Texas. Surface
observations this morning indicate strong to near-gale force N
winds within the northern Gulf waters behind the cold front. Wind
gusts to gale force have also been reported at several stations.
Additionally, N winds are strong to near-gale force within 90 nm
of the coast of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico. As a result of these
wind speeds, seas are 4-7 ft across the north-central and western
Gulf waters. 8-9 ft seas have been observed by buoys in the
north-western Gulf within an area from 26N to 28N between 92W and
96W. Localized seas to 8 ft are also noted offshore Tampico and
Veracruz. Light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in
the southeast Gulf ahead of both frontal boundaries.

For the forecast, the strong, reinforcing cold front will surge
south and overtake the stationary front by tonight. The merged
front will extend from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche
Sunday morning, then gradually weaken and stall from the Florida
Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon. High pressure and fresh
winds, strong in the western Gulf, will follow the front into Sun
evening. The front will then drift northward Tue through Wed as
southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the Caribbean.

East of the tropical wave along 68W, trades are moderate to fresh
with 4-6 ft seas. West of 68W, trades are light to gentle, with
seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic
extends a ridge westward along 23N into the SE Bahamas. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds will continue across the eastern Caribbean
today then shift S of 17N and spread into the central Caribbean
tonight through Mon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany a tropical wave along 69W through tonight. Moderate to
fresh easterly trades will return to the east and central
Caribbean, and moderate SE winds will develop across the NW
Caribbean, Tue night through Wed, as the Atlantic ridge shifts W
and builds across Florida.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above.

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are north of 31N,
and marine conditions are improving across the W Atlantic. Fresh
to strong W to SW winds are within an area from 28N to 31N
between 61W and 68W. Moderate to fresh W to SW winds are elsewhere
north of 25N and west of 55W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of a line from 28N53W to 23N69W in an area of
slightly convergent SW winds. 1018 mb high pressure is just SE of
this convergence zone, centered near 22N54W. A cold front enters
the eastern Atlantic waters near 31N26W and extends to 21N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the cold front.
1015 mb high pressure is centered near 21N31W. Seas are 8-12 ft
north of a line from 31N24W to 25N40W to 31N70W. Elsewhere, seas
are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cyclonic winds
associated with Post Tropical Cyclone Philippe will gradually
diminish over the waters N of 27N through tonight. Large SE to SE
swell across the northeastern waters will gradually diminish and
give way to large NE swell tonight through Sun night. Weak high
pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N across the Bahamas and into
Florida Mon through Wed.

$$
Mahoney
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