[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 19W, from 03N to 14N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N
between 15W and 23W.

A tropical wave is along 46W, from 06N to 18N, moving west at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave extends along 70W from 18N southward over
northern Venezuela. The westward motion is estimated to be 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection are noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
to 09N48W. The ITCZ continues from 09N48W to 10N62W. Outside of
the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 07N to 13N
between 24W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. To the N of it, a reinforcing cold front
extends from 29N83W to 25N97W. Latest surface observations
indicate strong to near-gale force N winds within the northern
Gulf waters behind the cold front. Additionally, N winds are
strong to near-gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Tampico and
Veracruz, Mexico. 8-10 ft seas prevail behind the cold front N of
23N and W of 90W. Localized seas to 8 ft are also noted offshore
Tampico and Veracruz. Light to gentle winds and 2-5 ft seas are
analyzed in the southeast Gulf ahead of both frontal boundaries.

For the forecast, the front will stretch from near Fort Myers,
Florida, to the Bay of Campeche Sun morning, then gradually weaken
and stall from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon.
High pressure and fresh winds, strong in the western Gulf, will
follow the front into Sun evening. The front will then drift
northward Tue through Wed as southerly return flow gradually
develops across most of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the central Caribbean.

East of the tropical wave, trades are moderate to fresh with 4-6
ft seas. West of the wave, trades are light to gentle, with seas
of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic
extends a ridge westward along 22N into the Turks and Caicos.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will continue across the
eastern Caribbean tonight then shift S of 17N and spread into the
central Caribbean Sun through Mon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany a tropical wave from Hispaniola to
eastern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades will return to
the east and central Caribbean, and moderate SE winds will
develop across the NW Caribbean, Tue through Wed, as the Atlantic
ridge shifts W and builds across Florida.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above.

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are north of 31N,
and marine conditions are improving across the W Atlantic. Fresh
to strong W to SW winds are within an area N of 29N between 60W
and 68W. Moderate to fresh W to SW winds are elsewhere north of
25N and west of 55W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
a surface trough, analyzed from 26N54W to 23N69W. A 1016 mb high
pressure is just SE of this trough, centered near 22N54W. A
stationary front enters the eastern Atlantic waters near 31N27W
and extends to 20N45W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm
of the cold front. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near
21N31W. Seas are 8-12 ft are N of 25N between 24W-59W. Elsewhere,
seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, Weak high pressure across the central
Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 22N and into the Turks
and Caicos, S of low pressure centered N of Bermuda. Associated
cyclonic winds will gradually diminish over the waters N of 29N
through tonight. Large NE swell will continue through Sun night
over NE waters. Weak high pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N
across the Bahamas and into Florida Mon through Wed.

$$
ERA
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