[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along the W coast of Africa has been added to the
0600 UTC surface map, along 17W, south of 16N. The wave is
estimated to be moving near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 13W and 20W.

A complex tropical wave is analyzed along 43W from 06N to 17N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 08N to
16N between 40W and 47W. Further east, satellite imagery and
precipitable water products show distinct cyclonic turning along
34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is about this
circulation from 07N to 12.5N between 33W and 39W.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean with
axis near 71.5W, S of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers and a few small thunderstorms dot the waters of the
Caribbean N of 14N to Hispaniola between 68W and 73.5W. Satellite
imagery and precipitable water products show cyclonic turning
along 68W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 61W and 69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
to 08.5N18W to 11N34W to 09.5N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N46W
to 10.5N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 04N to 12N between 20W and 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary extends across the basin from the central
Florida Panhandle to 23N95W to the Mexican coast just N of
Veracruz. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along
the front S of 24N, while large patches of light to moderate rain
aloft are seen N of the front to coastal waters, and W of 86W. Fresh
to strong NE winds prevail behind the front N of 21N. Seas are
generally 4 to 7 ft N of the front, except to 8 ft across the
waters offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico. Light to gentle variable
winds and slight seas are elsewhere ahead of the front, except for
moderate NE winds across the east and central Bay of Campeche,
where seas are 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and reach from
Cedar Key, Florida to 21N96W to the western Bay of Campeche this
evening, then from Sanibel, Florida to 21N95W to the central Bay
of Campeche Sun morning before weakening and stalling across the
Straits of Florida to 20N95W on Mon. High pressure and fresh to
strong winds will follow the front through Sun evening, with seas
building 8 to 11 ft. Strong winds will continue offshore of
Veracruz through early Mon. The front will then drift northward
Tue through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across
most of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the eastern to central Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas 5 to 6 ft are to the E of the
wave axis in the eastern Caribbean. Fair skies prevail across the
remainder of the NE Caribbean, to the north of the convection
described with the wave. West of the wave and in the remainder
Caribbean, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of 13N
between 73W and 82W.

Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic near 23N53W extends
a ridge westward along 23N into the SE Bahamas. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds will continue across the eastern
Caribbean today then shift S of 17N and spread into the central
Caribbean tonight through Mon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the tropical wave through tonight. Moderate
easterly trades will return to the east and central Caribbean, and
moderate SE winds will develop across the NW Caribbean Tue night
through Wed, as the Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds across
Florida.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections above for convection details in the tropical Atlantic.

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are centered N of
31N. A second surface low just SW of the remnants of Philippe near
34N69W if producing cyclonic winds across the waters N of 25N
and W of 53W. Fresh to strong W to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
in mixed swell are occurring north of 27N between 55W and 71W.
Deep layered SW winds are converging to produce scattered moderate
to strong convection N of 26N between 54W and 62W, while other
similar activity is from 20N to 22N between 66W and 75W. Moderate
S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere N of 22.5N
between 55W-75W. A warm front extends from 31N55W to 27N53W. 1018
mb high pressure is centered near 23N53W. Over the eastern north
Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N27W to 21N44W. Gentle
northerly winds and seas 7 to 11 ft in N swell follow this front
while moderate to fresh SW winds are within 150 nm ahead of it
with seas 6 to 7 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is also ahead of the front to 30W. S of the front,
gentle to locally moderate NE winds prevail to the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, where seas are 4 to 5 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central
Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 23N and into the SE
Bahamas, S of low pressure W of Bermuda. Associated cyclonic winds
will gradually diminish over the waters N of 27N through Saturday
night. Large SE to SE swell across the northeastern waters will
gradually diminish and give way to large NE swell tonight through
Sun night. Weak high pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N across
the Bahamas and into Florida Mon through Wed.

$$
Stripling
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