[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 24.8N 65.9W at 05/0900
UTC or 390 nm N of St. Thomas, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are presently
around 15 ft. Latest satellite imagery indicates that the overall
structure is not well organized. Numerous strong convection is
observed within 270 nm of center in the SE quadrant and within 210
nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is NE of the center from 25N to 28N
between 62W-68W. Philippe is forecast to pass near Bermuda on
Fri, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on Sat.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Philippe is then forecast to become a Post- Tropical Cyclone on
Sat as it approaches Atlantic Canada and New England. Rainfall
will begin to affect Bermuda today with rainfall totals of 3-5
inches expected through Fri. These rainfall amounts could result
in scattered flash flooding. Swells generated by Philippe will
affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico for another day or
so. Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another
weather system but will begin to increase further later today as
Philippe approaches the island. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 34W from 03N
to 14N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm east of the wave
from 07N to 10N.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W south of
17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 08N to 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 18N16W southwestward to
10N26W and to 07N41W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N48W and to 08N54W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either
side of the trough between 27W-30W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between
50W-54W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 41W-44W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between
35W-37W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 39W-41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure stretches south-southwestward from the eastern
United States to the the NE and north-central Gulf areas.
A trough extends from just northwest of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula south to near 19N91W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are just inland eastern Texas and southwestern
Louisiana. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions prevail. The gradient
presently in place supports moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds and seas of 4-6 ft across the majority of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over just about the
entire basin. As the gradient slackens today, this will allow for
these winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Light to
gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A pretty
robust cold front for the early autumn season is expected to move
across the northern Gulf Fri into Sat followed by fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad mid to upper-level trough reaches from off the South
Carolina coast southward through central Cuba to off the coast of
Nicaragua. Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southeast Cuba. Isolated
thunderstorms prevail across the remainder of the basin east of
81W, with somewhat drier conditions over the northwest part of the
basin. East of 68W, winds are from the southeast and of moderate
speeds along with seas of 3-5 ft. In the Yucatan Channel, winds
are of moderate speeds from the northeast with seas of 4-6 ft.
Elsewhere, winds are mainly light to gentle with seas 1-3 ft.

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
tied to outer rainbands from Philippe continue over the northeast
and far eastern sections of the Caribbean. An area of increasing
scattered moderate convection is evident south of the Dominican
Republic and between 68W-71W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
confined to the eastern part of the sea, while light to gentle
trade winds are over the rest of the sea, except for moderate
trade winds in the far northwest part of the seas. Seas are
generally 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 24.8N 65.9W at
5 AM EDT, and is moving north at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Philippe will move to near 26.7N 66.0W this afternoon
and continue northward through Sat well away from the forecast
waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer
rainbands are impacting the northeast part of the Caribbean. This
activity is expected to pull away from the forecast waters during
today. Light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin through
the next few days, except for moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds in the eastern Caribbean today. A tropical wave currently
moving across the waters east of the Lesser Antilles near 58W will
move into the eastern Caribbean today and move across the rest of
the Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to trail this wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe. In addition, please refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ for convection in the
tropical Atlantic.

An upper-level trough extending from South Carolina southward to
the western Caribbean is helping to sustain scattered showers
and thunderstorms north of Hispaniola and north of 25.5N between
73W-79W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 27N to
31N between 60W and 68.5W. Fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas are over
the western Atlantic north and northeast of the Bahamas, outside
of Philippe. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 24N51W,
with a surface ridge extending from 30N30W to the high pressure to
26N58W. To the north of the high, scattered moderate convection
is noted within a line that extends from 31N36W to 28N45W.
Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and 6-8 ft seas are also
found to the north of that surface ridge. Areas of rain with
embedded showers are over the northeast Atlantic from 21N to 29N
between 21W-25W mainly associated to a sharp upper-level trough
that extends from near 31N22W to 26N24W and to 17N27W. A surface
trough extends from inland Africa near 19N15W northwest to 26N20W.
No significant convection is occurring with this trough. In the
tropical latitudes, moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas
prevail from 10N-22N between 38W-61W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 24.8N 65.9W at
5 AM EDT, and is moving north at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Philippe will move to near 26.7N 66.0W this afternoon,
then strengthen slightly as it moves to near 30.0N 66.0W late
tonight with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Philippe
is forecast to lift north of the area to near 33.3N 66.0W Fri
afternoon and continue well north of the area through Sat as it
transitions to an extratropical cyclone. Fresh northeast winds
north of the Bahamas will diminish today.

$$
Aguirre
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