[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 23.8N 66.1W at 05/0300
UTC or 330 nm N of St. Thomas, moving N at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring from 14N to 25N between 62W and 67W.
Areas of heavy rain continue to linger near Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands. Peak seas near 15 ft. Philippe is expected to
continue its general motion with an increase in forward speed
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe
will pass near Bermuda on Friday, and approach eastern New
England and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. In addition, gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Swells
generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic
coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W from
03N to 14N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 05N to
10N between 28W and 36.5W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 57W south of
16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 06N to 13.5N between 50W and 59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 18N16W to 10N25W to
07.5N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N39W to 08.5N55.5W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06.5N to 09.5N
between 37W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is dissipating over the west-
central Gulf, offshore the lower Texas coast. Elsewhere, mainly
dry conditions prevail. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-6
ft seas prevail across most of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over just about the
entire basin. As the gradient slackens through Thu, this will
allow for these winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds.
Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night.
A cold front is expected to move across the northern Gulf Fri
into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection related to
Tropical Storm Philippe is over the NE Caribbean north of 14N
between 62W and 67W. In the same area, moderate winds and seas 5
ft or less are depicted. Please refer to the Special Features
section for additional details on Tropical Storm Philippe.

A broad mid to upper level trough reaches from off the South
Carolina coast southward through central Cuba to off the coast
of Nicaragua. Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms off the coast of southeast Cuba.
Isolated thunderstorms prevail across the remainder of the basin
east of 81W, with somewhat drier conditions in the NW basin.
East of 67.5W, winds are moderate SE with seas 3-5 ft. In the
Yucatan Channel, winds are moderate from the NE with seas 4-6
ft. Elsewhere, winds are mainly light to gentle with seas 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 23.8N 66.1W at
11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 1004 mb. Philippe will move to near 25.4N 66.3W Thu morning
and continue northward through Sat well away from the forecast
waters. Seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward
Islands generated by Philippe will continue to subside tonight.
Light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin through the
next few days, except for moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds in the eastern Caribbean tonight into Thu. A tropical wave
currently moving across the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
near 57W will reach the eastern Caribbean on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe. In addition, please refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ for convection in the
tropical Atlantic.

An upper-level trough extending from South Carolina southward to
the western Caribbean is inducing scattered thunderstorms north
of Hispaniola and north of 25.5N between 73W and 79W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted from 27N to 31N between 60W
and 68.5W. Fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas are over the western
Atlantic north and northeast of the Bahamas, outside of
Philippe. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 25N45.5W,
with a surface ridge extending from 30N30W to the high pressure
to 26N58W. To the north of the high, scattered moderate
convection is noted within a line that extends from 29N37W to
28N44W to 28N52W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 6-8 ft
seas are also found to the north of that surface ridge. Some
showers and thunderstorms are also seen in the NE Atlantic from
20N to 29N between 16W and 26W in association with another
surface trough. In the tropical latitudes, moderate to fresh
trades and 6-8 ft seas prevail from 10N to 22N between 38W and
61W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 23.8N 66.1W at
11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 1004 mb. Philippe will move to near 25.4N 66.3W Thu morning,
then begin to strengthen some as it nears 28.4N 66.0W Thu
evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, to near
31.9N 65.9W Fri morning and to well north of the area near 35.3N
66.4W Fri evening. The pressure gradient over the western
Atlantic will support fresh northeast winds north of the Bahamas
tonight, then diminish Thu.

$$
KRV
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