[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1755 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 26.2N 66.2W at 2 PM EDT, and is
moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Peak
seas are presently around 17 ft, mainly to the east of the center.
Philippe remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the
convection over the eastern and northern quadrants. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen north of 20N and
between 60W and 67W, and also north of 28N and between 67W and
72W. Philippe is expected to maintain a general northward motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through
late Saturday. A turn toward the north-northwest is possible
Saturday night or early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and
then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern
Maine Saturday night. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next day or two. Some strengthening is possible Friday night
or Saturday, but Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone on Saturday as it approaches Atlantic Canada and eastern
New England.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of
17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 11N and between 33W and 38W.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. It has its
axis along 59W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N
and between 55W and 63W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 09N30W and
06N45W. The ITCZ extends from 06N45W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 13N and
between 20W and 33W. Similar convection is seen from 04N to 10N
and between 39W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico as of 1500
UTC, producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
already affecting the nearshore waters in the area. The remainder
of the Gulf is under a weak high pressure pattern that maintains
generally dry weather conditions. Moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the Gulf waters, except for stronger
winds near the storm activity in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf
waters supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over just about
the entire basin. As the gradient slackens later today, this will
allow for these winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds.
Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A
pretty robust cold front for the early autumn season is expected
to move across the northern Gulf Fri into Sat followed by fresh to
strong winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergent flow aloft in the central Caribbean Sea associated with
a broad upper level trough over the SW tropical Atlantic and
tropical moisture result in scattered showers between Hispaniola
and Colombia. Farther east, an aforementioned tropical wave is
bringing some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Windward
Islands. Sinking air over the NW Caribbean is suppressing the
development of deep convection in the region.

The weak pressure pattern found across the Caribbean sustains
mainly light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to
locally fresh SE winds in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft
in the eastern Caribbean and slight seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 25.6N 66.3W at 11 AM EDT,
and is moving north at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Philippe will move to 27.7N 66.4W this evening, 30.9N 66.3W Fri
morning, and will b N of the forecast region near 34.2N 66.6W on
Fri evening. Light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin
through the next few days, except for moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds in the eastern Caribbean today. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands of Philippe
combined with a tropical wave with axis along 60W are impacting
the eastern Caribbean, including the Lesser Antilles. This convective
activity is forecast to persist today and tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N37W and
continues southwestward to 27N44W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate to
fresh westerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas
of 4-7 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by
a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found south of 20N
and west of 40W. Seas in this region are 5-8 ft. Similar winds
and seas are also occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north
of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 25.6N 66.3W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Philippe will move to 27.7N 66.4W this evening, 30.9N
66.3W Fri morning, and will be N of the forecast region near 34.2N
66.6W by Fri evening. Philippe is expected to become a post-
tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weak high pressure will build across
the area in the wake of Philippe.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net