[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A first cold front passes through NE Florida to the coast of NE
Mexico. A second cold front passes through Louisiana to the coast
of NE Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is within 300 nm to 430 nm to the south and the southeast of the
first cold front. The 42-hour forecast, starting at 27/0000 UTC,
consists of a cold front along 23N83W 19N92W. Expect gale-force NW
winds, and sea heights from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 19N to 20N
between 95W and 96W, including within 60 nm of the coast of
Veracruz in Mexico. Expect elsewhere: N to NE winds from 20 knots
to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from
18N to 25N between 86W and 98W, including in the Straits of
Florida and in the Yucatan Channel. Please, read the latest High
Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W, to 04N18W 04N26W 03N23W 03N31W. The ITCZ continues from
03N31W to 02N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the south of the line 10N60W 10N50W 07N40W, to 10N at
the coast of Guinea.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about two
cold fronts, and the gale-force wind warning that is forecast to
start on Tuesday.

Moderate to rough seas are in the NW corner of the area. The
comparatively highest sea heights of 8 feet are off the coast of
the Deep South of Texas. Slight seas are in the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds span the area.

A cold front extends from 1010 mb low pressure in the Big Bend of
Florida to the Mexican coast near 24N98W. The low will move into
the Atlantic tonight, and drag the cold front SE across the basin
as high pressure builds behind it. Gale force winds are expected
to develop off Veracruz by Tue morning through Tue evening with
rough seas behind the front. Over the next few days, the front
will reach from near Fort Myers to the western central Bay of
Campeche by Mon morning, from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan
peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue morning, then
move S and inland by Wed morning. The front will stall offshore of
Cabo Rojo, Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche early Tue
through Tue evening. Conditions across the Gulf will improve
significantly on Wed, then strong return flow will set up across
the NW Gulf Thu and Thu night ahead of the next approaching front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea, from 700 mb
to 250 mb. One exception is for a 700 mb inverted trough from SE
Cuba toward Colombia.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W in Colombia, beyond
Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in
the southern two-thirds of Nicaragua and in the coastal sections
of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 15N southward from 75W westward. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, in areas of scattered to broken
low level clouds, in trade wind flow.

Fresh to strong NE winds are about 200 nm off the coasts of
Venezuela and Colombia between 68W and 76W. Mostly moderate to
fresh NE winds are in the rest of the area. Moderate seas cover
much of the eastern two-thirds of the area. The comparatively
highest sea heights, that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are within
400 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Slight seas are in
the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

A weak Atlantic ridge will remain N of the basin through Mon
before shifting E as a cold front moves across the western
Atlantic Mon and Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds across the south
central Caribbean will expand in areal coverage tonight through
Tue, then diminish in coverage Wed through Thu. The cold front
will sink into the NW Caribbean early Tue and gradually stall from
central Cuba to northern Belize by late Wed before dissipating.
Fresh to strong NE winds behind the front will briefly dominate
the Yucatan Channel Tue afternoon through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front passes through NE Florida beyond 31N79W. Strong
southerly winds are from 28N northward between 76W and 80W. Mostly
moderate to some fresh southerly winds are in the rest of the
area that is from 70W westward. Mostly moderate seas are from the
Bahamas northward from 70W westward. Moderate to rough seas are
from 30N northward from 70W westward. Slight seas are from the
Bahamas southward. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 28N to 30N between
74W and 78W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 23N northward from 65W westward.

A cold front passes through 31N40W to 25N50W to 23N65W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 40W
and 65W. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are from 15N
northward between 28W and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are from
28N northward between 38W and 45W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 24N between 38W and 54W.

A first surface trough is along 31N25W 23N30W 21N33W. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are within 120 nm to the east of the
surface trough from 30N northward. A second surface trough is
about 260 nm to the northwest of the first surface trough from 40W
eastward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 20W and
40W.

A third surface trough is along 18N50W 12N60W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 10N to 18N between 47W and 62W.

Fresh NE winds are from 17N to 23N from 26W eastward, and from
16N southward between 35W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate to some
rough seas are from 10N southward between 40W and 50W. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Low pressure will move NE across north Florida and into the
Atlantic tonight with the trailing cold front moving SE across the
Atlantic waters Mon through Wed. The front will reach from near
31N70W through the NW Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida by
Mon evening, stretch from near 31N61W to central Cuba by Tue
evening, and reach from 31N50W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening. The
front will briefly become stationary along 23N Thu as high
pressure shifts E into the Atlantic behind it. Winds across the
area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri as the high pressure
moves E of Bermuda.

$$
mt/ar
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