[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The primary cold front stretches
from Ft. Myers, Florida to the Mexican coast near 22N98W. The
secondary front stretches from the Big Bend of Florida to the
Mexican coast near 23N98W. Fresh to strong N winds are ongoing
behind the fronts with seas to 8 ft. As the first front sweeps
over the western Gulf, gale- force winds will develop off the
Veracruz coast this evening. These winds will drop just below
gale-force tonight, and will pulse back to gale- force by Tue
afternoon through Tue night. Seas are expected to be rough with
these winds. As the front dissipates across the Bay of Campeche by
Tue night, conditions will improve on Wed across the basin.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N31W. The ITCZ extends from 03N31W to 02N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 17W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

Two cold fronts are noted across the basin. Fresh to strong N
winds continue behind the fronts. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with the
strongest winds off the coast of Mexico, from 22N to 25N and W of
93W. Seas range 4 to 6 ft elsewhere behind the fronts. Ahead of
the primary cold front, light to gentle winds with seas to 3 ft
are noted. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, a cold front is expected to move across the
basin today into Tue. Gale force winds are expected to develop off
Veracruz later today, then pulse once again by Tue afternoon into
Tue night. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. The front
will reach from the Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche
this evening, then mostly exit the basin with the front lingering
across the eastern Bay of Campeche on Tue. Conditions across the
Gulf will improve on Wed. Strong return flow will set up across
the northern Gulf on Thu and Thu night ahead of the next
approaching front that will push off the Texas coast late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure extends across the northern Caribbean. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the Eastern Pacific Monsoon trough
in the SW basin, otherwise no significant convection is observed
at this time. A large area of fresh to strong winds are occurring
in the south-central Caribbean off the Colombia coast with seas 8
to 10 ft. In the eastern basin, moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds prevail with seas 3 to 4 ft. In the northwestern Caribbean,
gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will remain N of the
basin through Mon before shifting E as a cold front moves across
the western Atlantic Mon and Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds
across the south central Caribbean will persist through Tue, then
diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. The cold front will sink
into the NW Caribbean by Mon night into early Tue and gradually
stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by Tue night before
dissipating later in the week. Brief fresh to strong NE winds can
be expected behind the front the Yucatan Channel Tue afternoon
into Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has emerged off the NE Florida coast and extends from
a 1009 mb low pressure near 32N77W to Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Ahead and behind the front, fresh to strong winds are occurring N
of 28N with seas to 8 ft. Across the rest of the western Atlantic,
a weak ridge is beginning to slide eastward in response to the
front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from a 1010 mb low
pressure near 34N39W to 25N49W then stalls from that point to
23N70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 50 nm along
and ahead of the front. Moderate winds are ahead and behind the
front with seas 6 to 8 ft around it. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere in this region with seas 4 to 6 ft. Farther south, a
trough extends across the Windward Islands from 18N51W to 12N62W.
Isolated thunderstorms are noted around this system. Winds are
moderate with seas to 8 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, a trough extends across the area from
31N24W to 20N34W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted ahead of the
trough N of 29N. Moderate winds prevail east of this trough with
seas to 6 ft. A second trough extends from 30N29W to 23N40W with
no significant convection around it. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the rest of the eastern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N69W through the Straits of Florida by this evening, stretch
from near 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue evening, and reach from
31N50W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening. The front will bring strong
winds ahead of it through tonight, with moderate to locally fresh
winds behind it through Wed. The front will briefly become
stationary along 23N Thu as high pressure shifts E into the
Atlantic behind it. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu
night and Fri while becoming fresh to locally strong as the high
pressure moves E of Bermuda.

$$
AReinhart
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