[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262242
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 29N86W to
25N97W will move SE across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue. Behind
the front, strong to near-gale force NW to N winds will develop
off the coast of Mexico between Tuxpan and Veracruz Mon. These NW
winds will increase to gale force Tue offshore Veracruz, with seas
building to 12 to 13 ft. Conditions should improve Wed. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to
06N between 13W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 1011 mb low pressure near
29N84W to NE Mexico near 24.5N98W. Strong N to NE winds are north
of the front, west of 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh N to
NE winds are elsewhere north of the front with 4 to 6 ft seas.
South of the front, winds are moderate to locally fresh westerly
over the eastern Gulf, north of 25N and east of 90W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the SE and south-central
Gulf with 3 to 4 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is seen
over the SE Gulf between Sarasota, FL and Cancun, Mexico.

For the forecast, the low over the NE Gulf will move E-NE through
the Florida Big Bend and into the Atlantic this evening and
tonight, and drag the cold front SE as high pressure builds behind
it. The front will reach from near Fort Myers, FL to 22N96W to
the west-central Bay of Campeche Mon morning, from western Cuba
to the northern Yucatan peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche Tue morning, then move S and inland by Wed morning. The
front will stall offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico to the central Bay
of Campeche early Tue through Tue evening, with strong to gale-
force NW winds occurring across the Mexican waters W of the front
Tue afternoon and evening. Conditions will improve significantly
on Wed. Strong return flow will then set up across the NW Gulf Thu
and Thu night ahead of the next approaching front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trades are occurring over in the south-central Caribbean
Sea, with strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere over the eastern
and central Caribbean. Seas are 7-8 ft in the south-central
Caribbean, 5-7 ft elsewhere in the central Caribbean, and 5-6 ft
in the E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are found in the NW
Caribbean with seas in the 2 to 5 ft range. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are seen in the far SW Caribbean off Panama
and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will remain N of the
basin through Mon before shifting E, as a cold front moves across
the western Atlantic Mon and Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds
across the south central Caribbean will expand in areal coverage
tonight through Tue, then diminish in coverage Wed through Thu.
The cold front will sink into the NW Caribbean early Tue and
gradually stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by late Wed
before dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds behind the front will
briefly dominate the Yucatan Channel Tue afternoon through Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a warm front extends from Daytona Beach,
Florida to 31N79W. Scattered showers are north of 27.5N and west
of 72W. 1018 mb high pressure is near 29N71W. Fresh southerly
winds have developed east of Florida from 27.5N to 30N between 76W
and 80W, where seas have recently built to 6 ft. Fresh E winds and
seas to 5 ft prevail off the N coast of Hispaniola. Light to
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of
the western Atlantic.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N41.5W to
26N50W to 24N64W. Moderate winds are on both sides of the front,
with seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is along and
within 120 nm ahead of the front, mainly east of 56W. 1016 mb
high pressure is south of the front near 20N45W. A surface trough
is from 17N52W to 11N58W just east of the Lesser Antilles. In the
eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N25W to 27N29W.
Moderate S winds and seas to 8 ft are E of the surface trough.
Elsewhere north of 20N and east of 60W, winds are light to
moderate and seas are 6 to 8 ft. Farther south, moderate trade
winds prevail with 7 to 9 ft seas from 05N to 17N.

For the forecast W of 50W, low pressure will move NE across north
Florida and into the Atlantic tonight, with the trailing cold
front moving SE across the Atlantic waters Mon through Wed. The
front will reach from near 31N70W through the NW Bahamas and into
the Straits of Florida by Mon evening, begin to weaken from near
30N63W to the central Bahamas Tue evening, then reach from 31N50W
to 25N65W to the south-central Bahamas Wed evening. The front
will briefly become stationary along 23N Thu as high pressure
shifts E into the Atlantic behind it. Winds across the area will
veer E to SE Thu night and Fri as the high pressure moves E of
Bermuda.

$$
Hagen
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