[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure system is
centered near 27N89W. A warm front extends eastward from the low
to 27N84W, where a stationary front continues to SW Florida. A
cold front extends southward from the low to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present E of 90W. Strong to gale-force winds are captured N of
28N and E of 91W. Seas in these waters are 8-13 ft. The low will
continue to move ENE through the week, gradually dragging the
fronts across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds and rough seas
will continue through tonight across the northern semicircle of
the low.

Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A complex low
pressure system is expected to develop along a frontal boundary
off the southeast coast of Florida Thu morning. A tight pressure
gradient between strong high pressure to the NE and the broad area
of low pressure center will support strong to near-gale force
winds N of 27N and E of 70W beginning Thu. Gale force ENE winds
are expected in the northern semicircle of the low, offshore
central Florida and north of the Bahamas Thu afternoon and Thu
night, supporting seas of 12-16 ft.

Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following
website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the gales.

Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea: A large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean is associated with a broad trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across
the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests
in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the
Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles
through the end of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas
may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails from 03N to 08N between 32W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the ongoing gale warning for the NE gulf waters.

A dry and stable airmass is found over most of the western Gulf,
west of 90W. This is behind the cold front associated with the
gale-force low described in the Special Features section. A modest
pressure gradient support fresh to strong northerly winds W of
90W. The strongest winds are found in the SW Gulf, off Veracruz.
Seas of 8-12 ft are occurring off Veracruz. Seas of 4-8 ft are
noted elsewhere west of 90W. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident in the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in these waters. Meanwhile,
light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the south-
central Gulf.

For the forecast, the gale low will continue to move ENE through
the week, gradually dragging the cold front across the Gulf
waters. Gale force winds and rough seas will continue through
tonight across the northern semicircle of the low. Marine
conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, with
high pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the potential for heavy rain in the SW Caribbean.

A surface trough is analyzed from NE Nicaragua to northern
Yucatan Peninsula. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical
moisture are helping to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the western Caribbean, mainly W of 77W.
Meanwhile, a dry airmass is suppressing deep convection in the
remainder of the basin.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds occurring off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.
These winds sustain seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean through Thu. Outside of the Special feature low
area, moderate to fresh winds and seas to 7 ft will prevail across
the remainder of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale warning
currently in effect for the W Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N44W to 23N73W, where it transitions
into a stationary front and then continues to the NW Bahamas and
SE Florida. Scattered showers are present near these frontal
boundaries. The deepest convection is noted off eastern Florida.
Latest satellite-derived wind data and surface observations
indicate that fresh to strong easterly winds prevail west of 70W.
Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest
seas are occurring N of 24N and W of 73W. Another cold front has
entered our area, extending from 31N58W to 28N69W. Fresh to strong
winds and seas to 8 ft are noted N of this second front. Moderate
to fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere N of 23N
and west of 30W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned W of Portugal. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics support fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and W of
25W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will continue to build
in the wake of the fronts N of the area today. This will support
an area of strong to near-gale winds over the waters N of 25N and
W of 70W beginning tonight. The special features low is expected
to develop tonight near the northern Bahamas. The low move NE
through the end of the week dragging a frontal boundary across
the waters in its wake through the upcoming weekend.

$$
ERA
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